KickoffDNA
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Market DNA · All competitions · since 2017

Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.

Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017

  • Favourites are underpriced: priced 71.3%, won 73.0% (+1.7 pt, 10,616 sides, 4.0 SE)
  • Longshots are overpriced: priced 15.9%, won 15.1% (-0.8 pt, 21,103 sides, 3.3 SE)
  • +1.7 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.3% · won 73.0%± 0.4 pt · 4.0 SE · 10,616 sides · underpriced
  • +0.2 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.2% · won 40.4%± 0.2 pt · 0.9 SE · 40,735 sides
  • -0.8 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.9% · won 15.1%± 0.2 pt · 3.3 SE · 21,103 sides · overpriced
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residual by 10-pt price band, one bar per side; bars are direction and size, read the table for SE

Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome

Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 36,227 fixtures · 71% closing, 24% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Home win44.3%44.4%+0.1 pt0.2 pt36,227
Draw24.7%24.4%-0.3 pt0.2 pt36,227
Away win31.0%31.2%+0.2 pt0.2 pt36,227
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 30,933 fixtures · 66% closing, 27% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Over 2.551.9%52.1%+0.3 pt0.3 pt30,933
Under 2.548.1%47.9%-0.3 pt0.3 pt30,933
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 33,276 fixtures · 93% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Both score51.4%52.3%+0.9 pt0.3 pt33,276
Not both48.6%47.6%-0.9 pt0.3 pt33,276

What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017

  • Pinnacle 36,2273.0% · p90 5.5%
  • Unibet 34,0705.4% · p90 7.7%
  • bet365 33,7095.7% · p90 8.0%
  • Ladbrokes 27,8606.4% · p90 8.1%
  • WilliamHill 32,6247.2% · p90 10.4%
  • Betfair 34,1537.4% · p90 12.0%

Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better

  • 0.9625Pinnacle log-loss27,549 fixtures
  • 0.9957Provider log-losssame fixtures
  • +0.0332Provider minus market23.7 SE
LeagueMarketGapSEn
Champions League0.8869+0.085410.31,502
Europa Conference League0.9293+0.06668.82,056
Europa League0.9244+0.07058.41,556
Liga Portugal0.9196+0.02737.22,183
Eredivisie0.9297+0.03017.02,130
Serie A0.9608+0.02396.82,685
Bundesliga0.9731+0.02886.72,159
La Liga0.9684+0.02336.32,710
Premier League0.9656+0.02376.12,681
Championship1.0381+0.01766.13,966
FA Cup0.9648+0.03444.51,563
Ligue 10.9875+0.01614.12,351

How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial

SeasonHome priced · actualDrawAwayn
2026/2746% · 43%23% · 25%31% · 32%887
2025/2644% · 45%25% · 24%31% · 31%4,145
2024/2545% · 45%25% · 24%31% · 31%4,129
2023/2445% · 44%24% · 25%31% · 31%4,012
2022/2344% · 46%25% · 23%31% · 31%3,993
2021/2244% · 44%25% · 25%31% · 31%4,101
2020/2142% · 42%25% · 24%33% · 35%4,188
2019/2045% · 44%25% · 25%31% · 32%3,426
2018/1945% · 46%25% · 25%30% · 29%3,656
2017/1845% · 46%25% · 24%30% · 30%3,509

Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season

  • Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)25,587 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-17
  • T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)8,846 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-07
  • Other (within the 24 h guard)1,794 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-08
  • Movement series (hourly + final hour)494 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated

Built 2026-09-18 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna