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Market DNA · All competitions · last 5 years

Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.

Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years

  • Favourites are underpriced: priced 71.1%, won 72.5% (+1.5 pt, 5,889 sides, 2.6 SE)
  • Longshots are overpriced: priced 16.1%, won 15.2% (-0.9 pt, 11,871 sides, 2.8 SE)
  • +1.5 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.1% · won 72.5%± 0.6 pt · 2.6 SE · 5,889 sides · underpriced
  • +0.4 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.3% · won 40.7%± 0.3 pt · 1.2 SE · 22,968 sides
  • -0.9 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.1% · won 15.2%± 0.3 pt · 2.8 SE · 11,871 sides · overpriced
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residual by 10-pt price band, one bar per side; bars are direction and size, read the table for SE

Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome

Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 20,364 fixtures · 60% closing, 38% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Home win44.5%44.7%+0.2 pt0.3 pt20,364
Draw24.6%24.2%-0.4 pt0.3 pt20,364
Away win30.9%31.1%+0.1 pt0.3 pt20,364
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 16,396 fixtures · 49% closing, 45% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Over 2.552.5%53.3%+0.8 pt0.4 pt16,396
Under 2.547.5%46.7%-0.8 pt0.4 pt16,396
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 19,594 fixtures · 98% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Both score51.6%53.1%+1.5 pt0.4 pt19,594
Not both48.4%46.9%-1.5 pt0.4 pt19,594

What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years

  • Pinnacle 20,3643.1% · p90 5.8%
  • Unibet 19,6325.6% · p90 7.7%
  • bet365 20,2525.8% · p90 8.6%
  • Ladbrokes 19,5166.5% · p90 7.9%
  • WilliamHill 20,2797.4% · p90 10.3%
  • Betfair 18,5739.4% · p90 12.5%

Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better

  • 0.9591Pinnacle log-loss20,293 fixtures
  • 0.9927Provider log-losssame fixtures
  • +0.0336Provider minus market21.0 SE
LeagueMarketGapSEn
Europa Conference League0.9313+0.06588.52,018
Champions League0.8967+0.07758.41,192
Liga Portugal0.8997+0.03247.21,525
Europa League0.9349+0.06477.01,108
Premier League0.9589+0.02646.11,875
Serie A0.9681+0.02295.71,898
Championship1.0335+0.01895.62,758
La Liga0.9638+0.02135.11,908
Bundesliga0.9709+0.02485.11,506
Eredivisie0.9333+0.02334.71,551
FA Cup0.9586+0.03814.51,308
Ligue 10.9836+0.01523.31,641

How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial

SeasonHome priced · actualDrawAwayn
2026/2746% · 44%23% · 25%31% · 31%896
2025/2644% · 45%25% · 24%31% · 31%4,145
2024/2545% · 45%25% · 24%31% · 31%4,129
2023/2445% · 44%24% · 25%31% · 31%4,012
2022/2344% · 46%25% · 23%31% · 31%3,993
2021/2244% · 44%25% · 25%31% · 31%4,101
2020/2142% · 42%25% · 24%33% · 35%4,188
2019/2045% · 44%25% · 25%31% · 32%3,426
2018/1945% · 46%25% · 25%30% · 29%3,656
2017/1845% · 46%25% · 24%30% · 30%3,509

Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season

  • Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)25,596 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-18
  • T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)8,846 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-07
  • Other (within the 24 h guard)1,794 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-08
  • Movement series (hourly + final hour)503 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated

Built 2026-09-19 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna