Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-2.0 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.1% · won 70.1%± 2.5 pt · 0.8 SE · 298 sides
-0.7 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.4% · won 39.7%± 1.6 pt · 0.5 SE · 952 sides
-0.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.2% · won 15.1%± 1.5 pt · 0.1 SE · 524 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 887 fixtures · 56% closing, 43% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
45.9%
43.4%
-2.5 pt
1.5 pt
887
Draw
23.4%
24.9%
+1.5 pt
1.4 pt
887
Away win
30.7%
31.7%
+1.0 pt
1.4 pt
887
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 846 fixtures · 55% closing, 39% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.1%
57.6%
+2.5 pt
1.7 pt
846
Under 2.5
44.9%
42.4%
-2.5 pt
1.7 pt
846
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 842 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
52.0%
55.0%
+2.9 pt
1.7 pt
842
Not both
47.9%
45.0%
-2.9 pt
1.7 pt
842
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · this season
Pinnacle 8874.9% · p90 9.2%
Ladbrokes 8106.4% · p90 7.4%
Unibet 8697.3% · p90 8.3%
bet365 8927.4% · p90 11.6%
WilliamHill 8909.1% · p90 11.3%
Betfair 88010.0% · p90 13.1%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · this season · lower is better
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2026/27
46% · 43%
23% · 25%
31% · 32%
887
2025/26
44% · 45%
25% · 24%
31% · 31%
4,145
2024/25
45% · 45%
25% · 24%
31% · 31%
4,129
2023/24
45% · 44%
24% · 25%
31% · 31%
4,012
2022/23
44% · 46%
25% · 23%
31% · 31%
3,993
2021/22
44% · 44%
25% · 25%
31% · 31%
4,101
2020/21
42% · 42%
25% · 24%
33% · 35%
4,188
2019/20
45% · 44%
25% · 25%
31% · 32%
3,426
2018/19
45% · 46%
25% · 25%
30% · 29%
3,656
2017/18
45% · 46%
25% · 24%
30% · 30%
3,509
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)25,587 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)8,846 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-07
Other (within the 24 h guard)1,794 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-08
Movement series (hourly + final hour)494 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated