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Market DNA · Cups · since 2017

Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.

Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017

  • No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
  • +0.7 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.8% · won 72.5%± 0.7 pt · 1.0 SE · 3,594 sides
  • +1.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.9% · won 41.9%± 0.5 pt · 2.1 SE · 9,601 sides
  • -0.4 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.8% · won 14.5%± 0.4 pt · 0.8 SE · 6,169 sides
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residual by 10-pt price band, one bar per side; bars are direction and size, read the table for SE

Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome

Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 9,682 fixtures · 71% closing, 27% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Home win45.8%46.6%+0.8 pt0.5 pt9,682
Draw23.3%22.2%-1.1 pt0.4 pt9,682
Away win30.9%31.1%+0.2 pt0.4 pt9,682
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 7,969 fixtures · 66% closing, 29% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Over 2.553.3%53.3%+0.0 pt0.5 pt7,969
Under 2.546.7%46.7%-0.0 pt0.5 pt7,969
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 8,092 fixtures · 95% closing, 1% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Both score50.2%50.1%-0.1 pt0.5 pt8,092
Not both49.8%49.9%+0.1 pt0.5 pt8,092

What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017

  • Pinnacle 9,6824.5% · p90 8.1%
  • Unibet 8,9066.2% · p90 9.9%
  • bet365 9,1416.5% · p90 11.2%
  • Ladbrokes 6,9736.7% · p90 11.4%
  • Betfair 9,1779.0% · p90 12.8%
  • WilliamHill 8,5549.2% · p90 11.8%

Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better

  • 0.9271Pinnacle log-loss6,684 fixtures
  • 0.9913Provider log-losssame fixtures
  • +0.0642Provider minus market16.0 SE

How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial

SeasonHome priced · actualDrawAwayn
2026/2748% · 47%23% · 24%29% · 29%495
2025/2646% · 48%23% · 21%31% · 31%1,222
2024/2546% · 49%23% · 20%30% · 31%1,207
2023/2446% · 47%23% · 22%31% · 31%1,088
2022/2345% · 48%24% · 22%31% · 30%1,093
2021/2245% · 46%24% · 24%31% · 30%1,104
2020/2144% · 44%23% · 19%34% · 36%843
2019/2046% · 43%23% · 24%31% · 33%956
2018/1946% · 46%24% · 23%30% · 30%869
2017/1846% · 46%23% · 25%30% · 29%754

Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season

  • Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)6,864 · 2017-05-24 → 2026-09-17
  • T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)2,575 · 2017-06-29 → 2026-09-07
  • Other (within the 24 h guard)243 · 2017-07-12 → 2026-08-07
  • Movement series (hourly + final hour)156 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated

Built 2026-09-18 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna