Market DNA · Cups · last 5 years
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
- No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
- +0.4 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.5% · won 71.9%± 1.0 pt · 0.4 SE · 2,035 sides
- +1.5 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.0% · won 42.5%± 0.6 pt · 2.3 SE · 5,826 sides
- -0.2 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.2% · won 15.1%± 0.6 pt · 0.3 SE · 3,593 sides
home side
away side
residual by 10-pt price band, one bar per side; bars are direction and size, read the table for SE
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 5,727 fixtures · 60% closing, 39% T-8h
| Outcome | Priced | Actual | Residual | SE | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 46.0% | 47.5% | +1.5 pt | 0.6 pt | 5,727 |
| Draw | 23.3% | 21.8% | -1.5 pt | 0.5 pt | 5,727 |
| Away win | 30.7% | 30.7% | +0.0 pt | 0.6 pt | 5,727 |
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 4,566 fixtures · 50% closing, 46% T-8h
| Outcome | Priced | Actual | Residual | SE | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 54.5% | +0.3 pt | 0.7 pt | 4,566 |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | 45.5% | -0.3 pt | 0.7 pt | 4,566 |
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 4,975 fixtures · 98% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
| Outcome | Priced | Actual | Residual | SE | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score | 51.0% | 51.1% | +0.0 pt | 0.7 pt | 4,975 |
| Not both | 49.0% | 48.9% | -0.0 pt | 0.7 pt | 4,975 |
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
- Pinnacle 5,7274.6% · p90 8.4%
- Unibet 5,4696.2% · p90 10.0%
- bet365 5,7186.7% · p90 11.3%
- Ladbrokes 5,1696.8% · p90 11.4%
- WilliamHill 5,6999.4% · p90 11.5%
- Betfair 5,31410.5% · p90 13.2%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
- 0.9314Pinnacle log-loss5,659 fixtures
- 0.9932Provider log-losssame fixtures
- +0.0618Provider minus market14.4 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
| Season | Home priced · actual | Draw | Away | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 48% · 47% | 23% · 24% | 29% · 29% | 495 |
| 2025/26 | 46% · 48% | 23% · 21% | 31% · 31% | 1,222 |
| 2024/25 | 46% · 49% | 23% · 20% | 30% · 31% | 1,207 |
| 2023/24 | 46% · 47% | 23% · 22% | 31% · 31% | 1,088 |
| 2022/23 | 45% · 48% | 24% · 22% | 31% · 30% | 1,093 |
| 2021/22 | 45% · 46% | 24% · 24% | 31% · 30% | 1,104 |
| 2020/21 | 44% · 44% | 23% · 19% | 34% · 36% | 843 |
| 2019/20 | 46% · 43% | 23% · 24% | 31% · 33% | 956 |
| 2018/19 | 46% · 46% | 24% · 23% | 30% · 30% | 869 |
| 2017/18 | 46% · 46% | 23% · 25% | 30% · 29% | 754 |
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
- Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)6,864 · 2017-05-24 → 2026-09-17
- T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)2,575 · 2017-06-29 → 2026-09-07
- Other (within the 24 h guard)243 · 2017-07-12 → 2026-08-07
- Movement series (hourly + final hour)156 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated
Built 2026-09-18 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna