Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-3.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.2% · won 69.0%± 3.2 pt · 1.0 SE · 184 sides
+0.2 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.2% · won 41.5%± 2.1 pt · 0.1 SE · 492 sides
+0.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.9% · won 15.0%± 2.0 pt · 0.1 SE · 314 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 495 fixtures · 32% closing, 67% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
47.9%
47.1%
-0.9 pt
2.0 pt
495
Draw
22.8%
23.6%
+0.9 pt
1.9 pt
495
Away win
29.3%
29.3%
-0.0 pt
1.9 pt
495
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 457 fixtures · 28% closing, 61% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.1%
54.0%
-1.1 pt
2.3 pt
457
Under 2.5
44.9%
46.0%
+1.1 pt
2.3 pt
457
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 450 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
50.3%
50.7%
+0.4 pt
2.3 pt
450
Not both
49.7%
49.3%
-0.4 pt
2.3 pt
450
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · this season
Ladbrokes 4396.4% · p90 7.5%
Pinnacle 4957.2% · p90 10.5%
Unibet 4777.7% · p90 8.8%
bet365 5029.9% · p90 11.9%
WilliamHill 49810.0% · p90 11.7%
Betfair 48811.9% · p90 13.5%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · this season · lower is better
0.9316Pinnacle log-loss491 fixtures
1.0093Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0777Provider minus market5.1 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2026/27
48% · 47%
23% · 24%
29% · 29%
495
2025/26
46% · 48%
23% · 21%
31% · 31%
1,222
2024/25
46% · 49%
23% · 20%
30% · 31%
1,207
2023/24
46% · 47%
23% · 22%
31% · 31%
1,088
2022/23
45% · 48%
24% · 22%
31% · 30%
1,093
2021/22
45% · 46%
24% · 24%
31% · 30%
1,104
2020/21
44% · 44%
23% · 19%
34% · 36%
843
2019/20
46% · 43%
23% · 24%
31% · 33%
956
2018/19
46% · 46%
24% · 23%
30% · 30%
869
2017/18
46% · 46%
23% · 25%
30% · 29%
754
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)6,864 · 2017-05-24 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)2,575 · 2017-06-29 → 2026-09-07
Other (within the 24 h guard)243 · 2017-07-12 → 2026-08-07
Movement series (hourly + final hour)156 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated