KickoffDNA
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Market DNA · Domestic leagues · since 2017

Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.

Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017

  • Favourites are underpriced: priced 71.0%, won 73.2% (+2.2 pt, 7,024 sides, 4.2 SE)
  • Longshots are overpriced: priced 16.3%, won 15.3% (-1.0 pt, 14,939 sides, 3.3 SE)
  • +2.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.0% · won 73.2%± 0.5 pt · 4.2 SE · 7,024 sides · underpriced
  • -0.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.0% · won 39.9%± 0.3 pt · 0.2 SE · 31,141 sides
  • -1.0 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.3% · won 15.3%± 0.3 pt · 3.3 SE · 14,939 sides · overpriced
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residual by 10-pt price band, one bar per side; bars are direction and size, read the table for SE

Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome

Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 26,552 fixtures · 71% closing, 24% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Home win43.8%43.6%-0.2 pt0.3 pt26,552
Draw25.2%25.2%+0.0 pt0.3 pt26,552
Away win31.0%31.2%+0.1 pt0.3 pt26,552
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 22,970 fixtures · 66% closing, 27% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Over 2.551.4%51.7%+0.4 pt0.3 pt22,970
Under 2.548.6%48.2%-0.4 pt0.3 pt22,970
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 25,191 fixtures · 92% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Both score51.8%53.1%+1.3 pt0.3 pt25,191
Not both48.2%46.9%-1.3 pt0.3 pt25,191

What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017

  • Pinnacle 26,5522.8% · p90 3.7%
  • Unibet 25,1715.3% · p90 7.0%
  • bet365 24,5755.6% · p90 6.8%
  • Ladbrokes 20,8946.4% · p90 7.3%
  • WilliamHill 24,0776.9% · p90 9.8%
  • Betfair 24,9837.1% · p90 11.5%

Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better

  • 0.9738Pinnacle log-loss20,872 fixtures
  • 0.9970Provider log-losssame fixtures
  • +0.0232Provider minus market17.8 SE

How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial

SeasonHome priced · actualDrawAwayn
2026/2744% · 40%24% · 26%32% · 34%399
2025/2644% · 43%25% · 26%31% · 31%2,923
2024/2544% · 43%25% · 26%31% · 31%2,922
2023/2444% · 43%25% · 26%31% · 31%2,924
2022/2344% · 45%25% · 24%31% · 31%2,900
2021/2244% · 43%25% · 25%31% · 32%2,997
2020/2142% · 41%25% · 25%33% · 34%3,345
2019/2044% · 44%25% · 25%31% · 31%2,470
2018/1944% · 45%25% · 26%30% · 29%2,787
2017/1845% · 46%25% · 24%30% · 30%2,755

Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season

  • Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)18,730 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-18
  • T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)6,271 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-19
  • Other (within the 24 h guard)1,551 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-08
  • Movement series (hourly + final hour)345 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated

Built 2026-09-19 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna