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Market DNA · Domestic leagues · last 5 years

Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.

Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years

  • Favourites are underpriced: priced 70.8%, won 72.8% (+2.0 pt, 3,871 sides, 2.9 SE)
  • Longshots are overpriced: priced 16.4%, won 15.3% (-1.1 pt, 8,312 sides, 2.9 SE)
  • +2.0 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 70.8% · won 72.8%± 0.7 pt · 2.9 SE · 3,871 sides · underpriced
  • -0.0 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.1% · won 40.1%± 0.4 pt · 0.1 SE · 17,211 sides
  • -1.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.4% · won 15.3%± 0.4 pt · 2.9 SE · 8,312 sides · overpriced
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residual by 10-pt price band, one bar per side; bars are direction and size, read the table for SE

Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome

Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 14,697 fixtures · 59% closing, 37% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Home win43.9%43.5%-0.4 pt0.4 pt14,697
Draw25.1%25.2%+0.1 pt0.4 pt14,697
Away win31.0%31.2%+0.2 pt0.4 pt14,697
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 11,832 fixtures · 49% closing, 45% T-8h
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Over 2.551.8%52.8%+1.0 pt0.4 pt11,832
Under 2.548.2%47.2%-1.0 pt0.4 pt11,832
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 14,651 fixtures · 98% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
OutcomePricedActualResidualSEn
Both score51.8%53.8%+2.0 pt0.4 pt14,651
Not both48.1%46.2%-2.0 pt0.4 pt14,651

What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years

  • Pinnacle 14,6972.9% · p90 3.7%
  • Unibet 14,2175.4% · p90 7.0%
  • bet365 14,5945.7% · p90 6.8%
  • Ladbrokes 14,3926.5% · p90 7.2%
  • WilliamHill 14,6437.1% · p90 9.1%
  • Betfair 13,2899.1% · p90 12.0%

Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better

  • 0.9704Pinnacle log-loss14,694 fixtures
  • 0.9930Provider log-losssame fixtures
  • +0.0226Provider minus market15.1 SE

How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial

SeasonHome priced · actualDrawAwayn
2026/2743% · 39%24% · 27%32% · 35%392
2025/2644% · 43%25% · 26%31% · 31%2,923
2024/2544% · 43%25% · 26%31% · 31%2,922
2023/2444% · 43%25% · 26%31% · 31%2,924
2022/2344% · 45%25% · 24%31% · 31%2,900
2021/2244% · 43%25% · 25%31% · 32%2,997
2020/2142% · 41%25% · 25%33% · 34%3,345
2019/2044% · 44%25% · 25%31% · 31%2,470
2018/1944% · 45%25% · 26%30% · 29%2,787
2017/1845% · 46%25% · 24%30% · 30%2,755

Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season

  • Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)18,723 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-17
  • T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)6,271 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-19
  • Other (within the 24 h guard)1,551 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-08
  • Movement series (hourly + final hour)338 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated

Built 2026-09-18 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna