Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-0.1 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.0% · won 71.9%± 4.1 pt · 0.0 SE · 114 sides
-1.7 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 39.5% · won 37.8%± 2.2 pt · 0.8 SE · 460 sides
-0.5 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.7% · won 15.2%± 2.4 pt · 0.2 SE · 210 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 392 fixtures · 86% closing, 14% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
43.4%
38.8%
-4.6 pt
2.2 pt
392
Draw
24.3%
26.5%
+2.3 pt
2.2 pt
392
Away win
32.3%
34.7%
+2.4 pt
2.2 pt
392
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 389 fixtures · 86% closing, 13% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.1%
61.7%
+6.6 pt
2.4 pt
389
Under 2.5
44.9%
38.3%
-6.6 pt
2.4 pt
389
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 392 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
54.1%
60.0%
+5.8 pt
2.4 pt
392
Not both
45.9%
40.1%
-5.8 pt
2.4 pt
392
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · this season
Pinnacle 3923.3% · p90 3.9%
bet365 3905.9% · p90 6.9%
Ladbrokes 3716.4% · p90 7.3%
Betfair 3926.6% · p90 9.8%
Unibet 3927.0% · p90 7.5%
WilliamHill 3928.3% · p90 9.5%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · this season · lower is better
0.9749Pinnacle log-loss392 fixtures
1.0190Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0441Provider minus market3.6 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2026/27
43% · 39%
24% · 27%
32% · 35%
392
2025/26
44% · 43%
25% · 26%
31% · 31%
2,923
2024/25
44% · 43%
25% · 26%
31% · 31%
2,922
2023/24
44% · 43%
25% · 26%
31% · 31%
2,924
2022/23
44% · 45%
25% · 24%
31% · 31%
2,900
2021/22
44% · 43%
25% · 25%
31% · 32%
2,997
2020/21
42% · 41%
25% · 25%
33% · 34%
3,345
2019/20
44% · 44%
25% · 25%
31% · 31%
2,470
2018/19
44% · 45%
25% · 26%
30% · 29%
2,787
2017/18
45% · 46%
25% · 24%
30% · 30%
2,755
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)18,723 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)6,271 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-19
Other (within the 24 h guard)1,551 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-08
Movement series (hourly + final hour)338 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated