Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+2.3 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 73.0% · won 75.4%± 1.5 pt · 1.6 SE · 836 sides
+1.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.0% · won 42.1%± 1.1 pt · 1.0 SE · 1,957 sides
-0.8 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.3% · won 13.5%± 0.9 pt · 0.9 SE · 1,371 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,082 fixtures · 71% closing, 27% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
46.5%
46.6%
+0.1 pt
1.0 pt
2,082
Draw
22.7%
21.3%
-1.5 pt
0.9 pt
2,082
Away win
30.8%
32.1%
+1.3 pt
0.9 pt
2,082
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 1,762 fixtures · 66% closing, 29% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.1%
55.4%
+0.3 pt
1.2 pt
1,762
Under 2.5
44.9%
44.6%
-0.3 pt
1.2 pt
1,762
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 1,923 fixtures · 97% closing, 2% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
51.7%
51.4%
-0.3 pt
1.1 pt
1,923
Not both
48.3%
48.6%
+0.3 pt
1.1 pt
1,923
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 2,0823.2% · p90 5.8%
Unibet 1,9405.0% · p90 7.1%
bet365 1,8945.9% · p90 8.9%
Ladbrokes 1,5376.3% · p90 7.9%
Betfair 2,0496.6% · p90 11.7%
WilliamHill 1,8066.9% · p90 10.5%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.8869Pinnacle log-loss1,502 fixtures
0.9723Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0854Provider minus market10.3 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
47% · 50%
22% · 19%
31% · 31%
281
2024/25
46% · 51%
22% · 16%
31% · 33%
277
2023/24
47% · 46%
23% · 23%
30% · 31%
211
2022/23
46% · 49%
23% · 24%
31% · 27%
212
2021/22
46% · 47%
23% · 20%
31% · 33%
218
2020/21
45% · 43%
22% · 19%
33% · 38%
187
2019/20
47% · 43%
23% · 24%
30% · 33%
192
2018/19
46% · 43%
23% · 26%
30% · 31%
203
2017/18
47% · 44%
22% · 23%
31% · 33%
197
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,472 · 2017-06-03 → 2026-09-10
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)570 · 2017-09-27 → 2026-08-19
Other (within the 24 h guard)40 · 2017-07-12 → 2023-04-19
Movement series (hourly + final hour)25 · from 2026-08-25 · not evaluated