Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+3.4 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.7% · won 76.1%± 1.9 pt · 1.8 SE · 452 sides
+1.6 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.3% · won 42.9%± 1.4 pt · 1.1 SE · 1,153 sides
-0.5 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.9% · won 14.4%± 1.2 pt · 0.4 SE · 779 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,192 fixtures · 56% closing, 43% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
46.7%
48.7%
+2.1 pt
1.3 pt
1,192
Draw
22.8%
20.2%
-2.5 pt
1.1 pt
1,192
Away win
30.6%
31.0%
+0.5 pt
1.2 pt
1,192
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 970 fixtures · 46% closing, 47% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
56.3%
56.1%
-0.2 pt
1.6 pt
970
Under 2.5
43.7%
43.9%
+0.2 pt
1.6 pt
970
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,179 fixtures · 98% closing, 1% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
52.8%
52.2%
-0.6 pt
1.4 pt
1,179
Not both
47.2%
47.8%
+0.6 pt
1.4 pt
1,179
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,1923.2% · p90 6.3%
Unibet 1,1715.2% · p90 7.1%
bet365 1,1735.9% · p90 9.1%
Ladbrokes 1,1206.4% · p90 7.8%
WilliamHill 1,1946.7% · p90 10.1%
Betfair 1,1638.5% · p90 12.3%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.8967Pinnacle log-loss1,192 fixtures
0.9742Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0775Provider minus market8.4 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
47% · 50%
22% · 19%
31% · 31%
281
2024/25
46% · 51%
22% · 16%
31% · 33%
277
2023/24
47% · 46%
23% · 23%
30% · 31%
211
2022/23
46% · 49%
23% · 24%
31% · 27%
212
2021/22
46% · 47%
23% · 20%
31% · 33%
218
2020/21
45% · 43%
22% · 19%
33% · 38%
187
2019/20
47% · 43%
23% · 24%
30% · 33%
192
2018/19
46% · 43%
23% · 26%
30% · 31%
203
2017/18
47% · 44%
22% · 23%
31% · 33%
197
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,472 · 2017-06-03 → 2026-09-10
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)570 · 2017-09-27 → 2026-08-19
Other (within the 24 h guard)40 · 2017-07-12 → 2023-04-19
Movement series (hourly + final hour)25 · from 2026-08-25 · not evaluated