Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+8.3 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 73.0% · won 81.2%± 6.6 pt · 1.3 SE · 32 sides
+0.2 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.9% · won 42.2%± 4.7 pt · 0.1 SE · 102 sides
-6.0 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.4% · won 9.4%± 3.6 pt · 1.7 SE · 64 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 99 fixtures · 25% closing, 75% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
49.5%
48.5%
-1.1 pt
4.3 pt
99
Draw
23.3%
24.2%
+1.0 pt
4.2 pt
99
Away win
27.2%
27.3%
+0.1 pt
3.9 pt
99
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 95 fixtures · 23% closing, 63% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.7%
52.6%
-3.1 pt
5.0 pt
95
Under 2.5
44.3%
47.4%
+3.1 pt
5.0 pt
95
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 99 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
52.2%
55.6%
+3.3 pt
4.9 pt
99
Not both
47.8%
44.4%
-3.3 pt
4.9 pt
99
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
47% · 50%
22% · 19%
31% · 31%
281
2024/25
46% · 51%
22% · 16%
31% · 33%
277
2023/24
47% · 46%
23% · 23%
30% · 31%
211
2022/23
46% · 49%
23% · 24%
31% · 27%
212
2021/22
46% · 47%
23% · 20%
31% · 33%
218
2020/21
45% · 43%
22% · 19%
33% · 38%
187
2019/20
47% · 43%
23% · 24%
30% · 33%
192
2018/19
46% · 43%
23% · 26%
30% · 31%
203
2017/18
47% · 44%
22% · 23%
31% · 33%
197
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,472 · 2017-06-03 → 2026-09-10
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)570 · 2017-09-27 → 2026-08-19
Other (within the 24 h guard)40 · 2017-07-12 → 2023-04-19
Movement series (hourly + final hour)25 · from 2026-08-25 · not evaluated