Market DNA · Europa Conference League · last 5 years
Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-1.8 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.9% · won 70.1%± 1.6 pt · 1.1 SE · 765 sides
+2.0 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.8% · won 42.8%± 1.1 pt · 1.9 SE · 1,959 sides
-0.3 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.6% · won 14.3%± 1.0 pt · 0.3 SE · 1,318 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 2,021 fixtures · 61% closing, 38% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
46.4%
47.8%
+1.4 pt
1.0 pt
2,021
Draw
23.7%
22.6%
-1.1 pt
0.9 pt
2,021
Away win
29.9%
29.6%
-0.3 pt
0.9 pt
2,021
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,730 fixtures · 53% closing, 42% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
52.2%
51.7%
-0.5 pt
1.2 pt
1,730
Under 2.5
47.8%
48.3%
+0.5 pt
1.2 pt
1,730
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,985 fixtures · 98% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
49.0%
48.9%
-0.1 pt
1.1 pt
1,985
Not both
51.0%
51.1%
+0.1 pt
1.1 pt
1,985
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 2,0215.6% · p90 7.8%
Unibet 1,9896.7% · p90 8.4%
bet365 1,9918.0% · p90 11.1%
Ladbrokes 1,7818.3% · p90 10.3%
WilliamHill 2,0199.9% · p90 11.2%
Betfair 1,96711.2% · p90 13.4%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9313Pinnacle log-loss2,018 fixtures
0.9971Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0658Provider minus market8.5 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2026/27
48% · 45%
23% · 27%
30% · 28%
254
2025/26
47% · 49%
24% · 22%
30% · 29%
408
2024/25
46% · 50%
24% · 21%
30% · 29%
404
2023/24
46% · 47%
24% · 23%
30% · 30%
417
2022/23
45% · 46%
24% · 23%
30% · 31%
414
2021/22
46% · 49%
24% · 23%
31% · 28%
420
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,521 · 2021-07-06 → 2026-08-27
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)780 · 2021-08-12 → 2026-08-13
Other (within the 24 h guard)16 · 2023-02-23 → 2026-08-06
Movement series (hourly + final hour)48 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated