Market DNA · Europa Conference League · this season
Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-4.6 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.2% · won 67.6%± 4.4 pt · 1.0 SE · 105 sides
-0.7 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.9% · won 40.2%± 3.1 pt · 0.2 SE · 236 sides
-2.3 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.2% · won 12.0%± 2.5 pt · 0.9 SE · 167 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 254 fixtures · 20% closing, 80% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
47.5%
44.9%
-2.6 pt
2.7 pt
254
Draw
22.8%
26.8%
+4.0 pt
2.8 pt
254
Away win
29.7%
28.3%
-1.4 pt
2.6 pt
254
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 248 fixtures · 19% closing, 69% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
54.1%
53.6%
-0.4 pt
3.1 pt
248
Under 2.5
45.9%
46.4%
+0.4 pt
3.1 pt
248
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 255 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
49.1%
51.8%
+2.6 pt
3.1 pt
255
Not both
50.9%
48.2%
-2.6 pt
3.1 pt
255
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · this season
Ladbrokes 2306.3% · p90 7.1%
Unibet 2537.8% · p90 8.6%
Pinnacle 2547.9% · p90 9.3%
WilliamHill 2559.4% · p90 10.4%
bet365 25510.2% · p90 11.9%
Betfair 25512.3% · p90 13.7%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · this season · lower is better
0.9307Pinnacle log-loss254 fixtures
1.0150Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0843Provider minus market3.8 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2026/27
48% · 45%
23% · 27%
30% · 28%
254
2025/26
47% · 49%
24% · 22%
30% · 29%
408
2024/25
46% · 50%
24% · 21%
30% · 29%
404
2023/24
46% · 47%
24% · 23%
30% · 30%
417
2022/23
45% · 46%
24% · 23%
30% · 31%
414
2021/22
46% · 49%
24% · 23%
31% · 28%
420
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,521 · 2021-07-06 → 2026-08-27
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)780 · 2021-08-12 → 2026-08-13
Other (within the 24 h guard)16 · 2023-02-23 → 2026-08-06
Movement series (hourly + final hour)48 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated