Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-0.8 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.0% · won 70.2%± 1.6 pt · 0.5 SE · 782 sides
+0.8 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.8% · won 41.6%± 1.0 pt · 0.8 SE · 2,550 sides
+0.2 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.7% · won 15.9%± 1.0 pt · 0.2 SE · 1,362 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,347 fixtures · 70% closing, 25% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
44.1%
44.6%
+0.5 pt
0.9 pt
2,347
Draw
22.9%
22.2%
-0.7 pt
0.9 pt
2,347
Away win
33.0%
33.2%
+0.2 pt
0.9 pt
2,347
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 1,599 fixtures · 63% closing, 30% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.0%
54.8%
-0.2 pt
1.2 pt
1,599
Under 2.5
45.0%
45.2%
+0.2 pt
1.2 pt
1,599
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 1,286 fixtures · 89% closing, 4% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
51.5%
53.6%
+2.2 pt
1.4 pt
1,286
Not both
48.5%
46.4%
-2.2 pt
1.4 pt
1,286
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 2,3476.4% · p90 8.6%
Unibet 2,0908.0% · p90 11.4%
Ladbrokes 1,6588.4% · p90 12.2%
bet365 2,4138.9% · p90 11.8%
WilliamHill 2,19810.4% · p90 12.3%
Betfair 2,22510.8% · p90 14.1%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9648Pinnacle log-loss1,563 fixtures
0.9992Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0344Provider minus market4.5 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
42% · 46%
23% · 21%
35% · 33%
261
2024/25
45% · 44%
22% · 23%
32% · 33%
256
2023/24
46% · 44%
22% · 23%
33% · 34%
284
2022/23
45% · 48%
23% · 19%
32% · 33%
291
2021/22
43% · 45%
23% · 24%
33% · 31%
290
2020/21
43% · 44%
23% · 20%
34% · 36%
281
2019/20
43% · 37%
24% · 25%
33% · 38%
283
2018/19
43% · 45%
24% · 22%
33% · 33%
188
2017/18
46% · 51%
23% · 26%
31% · 23%
167
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,652 · 2017-09-30 → 2026-09-09
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)578 · 2017-11-04 → 2026-09-07
Other (within the 24 h guard)117 · 2017-09-17 → 2026-08-07
Movement series (hourly + final hour)41 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated