Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-0.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.0% · won 70.8%± 2.1 pt · 0.1 SE · 449 sides
+0.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.0% · won 41.2%± 1.2 pt · 0.1 SE · 1,549 sides
+1.2 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.1% · won 17.3%± 1.3 pt · 0.9 SE · 804 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,401 fixtures · 66% closing, 33% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
44.5%
45.4%
+0.9 pt
1.2 pt
1,401
Draw
22.6%
21.8%
-0.8 pt
1.1 pt
1,401
Away win
32.9%
32.8%
-0.1 pt
1.2 pt
1,401
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 912 fixtures · 50% closing, 48% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
56.1%
58.1%
+2.0 pt
1.6 pt
912
Under 2.5
43.9%
41.9%
-2.0 pt
1.6 pt
912
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 704 fixtures · 97% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
51.7%
55.7%
+4.0 pt
1.9 pt
704
Not both
48.3%
44.3%
-4.0 pt
1.9 pt
704
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,4016.9% · p90 8.7%
Ladbrokes 1,1958.1% · p90 12.2%
Unibet 1,2208.7% · p90 11.5%
bet365 1,4549.6% · p90 11.9%
WilliamHill 1,37710.9% · p90 12.3%
Betfair 1,11711.5% · p90 13.8%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9597Pinnacle log-loss1,336 fixtures
0.9983Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0386Provider minus market4.7 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
42% · 46%
23% · 21%
35% · 33%
261
2024/25
45% · 44%
22% · 23%
32% · 33%
256
2023/24
46% · 44%
22% · 23%
33% · 34%
284
2022/23
45% · 48%
23% · 19%
32% · 33%
291
2021/22
43% · 45%
23% · 24%
33% · 31%
290
2020/21
43% · 44%
23% · 20%
34% · 36%
281
2019/20
43% · 37%
24% · 25%
33% · 38%
283
2018/19
43% · 45%
24% · 22%
33% · 33%
188
2017/18
46% · 51%
23% · 26%
31% · 23%
167
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,652 · 2017-09-30 → 2026-09-09
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)578 · 2017-11-04 → 2026-09-07
Other (within the 24 h guard)117 · 2017-09-17 → 2026-08-07
Movement series (hourly + final hour)41 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated