Market DNA · FA Cup · this season
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
- No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
- +3.9 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 42.2% · won 46.2%± 6.2 pt · 0.6 SE · 65 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 46 fixtures · 91% closing, 7% T-8h
| Outcome | Priced | Actual | Residual | SE | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 47.1% | 50.0% | +2.9 pt | 7.5 pt | 46 |
| Draw | 22.1% | 10.9% | -11.2 pt | 4.7 pt | 46 |
| Away win | 30.8% | 39.1% | +8.3 pt | 7.4 pt | 46 |
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
| Season | Home priced · actual | Draw | Away | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 42% · 46% | 23% · 21% | 35% · 33% | 261 |
| 2024/25 | 45% · 44% | 22% · 23% | 32% · 33% | 256 |
| 2023/24 | 46% · 44% | 22% · 23% | 33% · 34% | 284 |
| 2022/23 | 45% · 48% | 23% · 19% | 32% · 33% | 291 |
| 2021/22 | 43% · 45% | 23% · 24% | 33% · 31% | 290 |
| 2020/21 | 43% · 44% | 23% · 20% | 34% · 36% | 281 |
| 2019/20 | 43% · 37% | 24% · 25% | 33% · 38% | 283 |
| 2018/19 | 43% · 45% | 24% · 22% | 33% · 33% | 188 |
| 2017/18 | 46% · 51% | 23% · 26% | 31% · 23% | 167 |
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
- Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,652 · 2017-09-30 → 2026-09-09
- T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)578 · 2017-11-04 → 2026-09-07
- Other (within the 24 h guard)117 · 2017-09-17 → 2026-08-07
- Movement series (hourly + final hour)41 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated
Built 2026-09-18 06:40 UTC · silver.market_dna