Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+1.3 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 70.3% · won 71.6%± 1.6 pt · 0.8 SE · 768 sides
-0.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.2% · won 40.1%± 0.8 pt · 0.1 SE · 3,669 sides
-0.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 17.0% · won 16.8%± 0.9 pt · 0.1 SE · 1,789 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 3,113 fixtures · 72% closing, 21% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
43.8%
43.2%
-0.6 pt
0.8 pt
3,113
Draw
25.6%
25.4%
-0.1 pt
0.8 pt
3,113
Away win
30.6%
31.4%
+0.7 pt
0.8 pt
3,113
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,688 fixtures · 68% closing, 24% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
50.3%
51.2%
+1.0 pt
0.9 pt
2,688
Under 2.5
49.7%
48.8%
-1.0 pt
0.9 pt
2,688
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 2,912 fixtures · 93% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
51.7%
53.6%
+1.9 pt
0.9 pt
2,912
Not both
48.3%
46.4%
-1.9 pt
0.9 pt
2,912
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 3,1132.7% · p90 3.4%
Unibet 2,9325.4% · p90 6.5%
bet365 2,8255.6% · p90 6.6%
Ladbrokes 2,3566.4% · p90 7.1%
WilliamHill 2,7806.8% · p90 9.9%
Betfair 2,9387.0% · p90 10.8%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9875Pinnacle log-loss2,351 fixtures
1.0036Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0161Provider minus market4.1 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 46%
25% · 24%
32% · 30%
305
2024/25
44% · 47%
25% · 20%
31% · 33%
305
2023/24
43% · 39%
26% · 26%
31% · 34%
306
2022/23
44% · 42%
25% · 24%
31% · 34%
361
2021/22
44% · 43%
26% · 27%
31% · 31%
380
2020/21
42% · 37%
26% · 25%
32% · 38%
380
2019/20
44% · 48%
27% · 25%
28% · 27%
279
2018/19
45% · 43%
27% · 30%
29% · 27%
366
2017/18
45% · 46%
25% · 25%
29% · 29%
374
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,242 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-13
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)667 · 2017-09-16 → 2026-05-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)204 · 2017-08-26 → 2023-04-30
Movement series (hourly + final hour)36 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated