Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-10.2 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.4% · won 30.2%± 6.9 pt · 1.5 SE · 43 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 36 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
40.5%
27.8%
-12.8 pt
7.0 pt
36
Draw
25.0%
36.1%
+11.1 pt
8.0 pt
36
Away win
34.5%
36.1%
+1.6 pt
8.2 pt
36
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 36 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.6%
52.8%
-2.8 pt
8.5 pt
36
Under 2.5
44.4%
47.2%
+2.8 pt
8.5 pt
36
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 36 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
55.5%
55.6%
+0.1 pt
8.5 pt
36
Not both
44.5%
44.4%
-0.1 pt
8.5 pt
36
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 46%
25% · 24%
32% · 30%
305
2024/25
44% · 47%
25% · 20%
31% · 33%
305
2023/24
43% · 39%
26% · 26%
31% · 34%
306
2022/23
44% · 42%
25% · 24%
31% · 34%
361
2021/22
44% · 43%
26% · 27%
31% · 31%
380
2020/21
42% · 37%
26% · 25%
32% · 38%
380
2019/20
44% · 48%
27% · 25%
28% · 27%
279
2018/19
45% · 43%
27% · 30%
29% · 27%
366
2017/18
45% · 46%
25% · 25%
29% · 29%
374
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,242 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-13
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)667 · 2017-09-16 → 2026-05-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)204 · 2017-08-26 → 2023-04-30
Movement series (hourly + final hour)36 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated