Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
Longshots are overpriced: priced 16.5%, won 14.2% (-2.4 pt, 1,186 sides, 2.4 SE)
+3.0 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 69.0% · won 72.0%± 2.0 pt · 1.6 SE · 522 sides
-0.3 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.5% · won 40.2%± 1.1 pt · 0.3 SE · 2,092 sides
-2.4 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.5% · won 14.2%± 1.0 pt · 2.4 SE · 1,186 sides · overpriced
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,900 fixtures · 60% closing, 37% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
42.6%
40.4%
-2.2 pt
1.0 pt
1,900
Draw
26.1%
27.1%
+0.9 pt
1.0 pt
1,900
Away win
31.3%
32.6%
+1.3 pt
1.0 pt
1,900
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,549 fixtures · 48% closing, 47% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
47.6%
47.4%
-0.1 pt
1.3 pt
1,549
Under 2.5
52.4%
52.5%
+0.1 pt
1.3 pt
1,549
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,896 fixtures · 98% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
50.0%
51.5%
+1.6 pt
1.1 pt
1,896
Not both
50.0%
48.5%
-1.6 pt
1.1 pt
1,896
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,9002.8% · p90 3.4%
Unibet 1,8435.5% · p90 6.7%
bet365 1,8845.6% · p90 6.5%
Ladbrokes 1,8616.5% · p90 7.2%
WilliamHill 1,9016.9% · p90 8.8%
Betfair 1,7169.3% · p90 11.4%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9673Pinnacle log-loss1,900 fixtures
0.9905Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0232Provider minus market5.8 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
41% · 39%
27% · 26%
32% · 35%
380
2024/25
42% · 40%
27% · 28%
31% · 32%
380
2023/24
43% · 42%
26% · 29%
31% · 29%
380
2022/23
43% · 42%
26% · 26%
31% · 32%
371
2021/22
44% · 39%
24% · 26%
32% · 35%
380
2020/21
42% · 42%
24% · 25%
34% · 34%
477
2019/20
44% · 40%
25% · 22%
31% · 37%
282
2018/19
44% · 43%
25% · 30%
31% · 27%
346
2017/18
45% · 43%
24% · 22%
31% · 35%
376
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,425 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-14
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)803 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-05-24
Other (within the 24 h guard)212 · 2017-05-13 → 2025-02-06
Movement series (hourly + final hour)40 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated