Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+2.5 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.7% · won 44.2%± 7.6 pt · 0.3 SE · 43 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 40 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
42.3%
42.5%
+0.2 pt
6.7 pt
40
Draw
26.1%
15.0%
-11.1 pt
5.5 pt
40
Away win
31.6%
42.5%
+10.8 pt
7.1 pt
40
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 40 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
49.7%
57.5%
+7.8 pt
7.7 pt
40
Under 2.5
50.3%
42.5%
-7.8 pt
7.7 pt
40
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 40 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
50.3%
60.0%
+9.7 pt
7.7 pt
40
Not both
49.7%
40.0%
-9.7 pt
7.7 pt
40
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
41% · 39%
27% · 26%
32% · 35%
380
2024/25
42% · 40%
27% · 28%
31% · 32%
380
2023/24
43% · 42%
26% · 29%
31% · 29%
380
2022/23
43% · 42%
26% · 26%
31% · 32%
371
2021/22
44% · 39%
24% · 26%
32% · 35%
380
2020/21
42% · 42%
24% · 25%
34% · 34%
477
2019/20
44% · 40%
25% · 22%
31% · 37%
282
2018/19
44% · 43%
25% · 30%
31% · 27%
346
2017/18
45% · 43%
24% · 22%
31% · 35%
376
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,425 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-14
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)803 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-05-24
Other (within the 24 h guard)212 · 2017-05-13 → 2025-02-06
Movement series (hourly + final hour)40 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated