Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
Longshots are overpriced: priced 14.6%, won 12.5% (-2.1 pt, 1,667 sides, 2.6 SE)
+5.5 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 73.6% · won 79.1%± 1.3 pt · 4.2 SE · 932 sides
+0.3 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 39.0% · won 39.3%± 0.9 pt · 0.3 SE · 2,975 sides
-2.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.6% · won 12.5%± 0.8 pt · 2.6 SE · 1,667 sides · overpriced
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,787 fixtures · 70% closing, 24% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
43.2%
44.1%
+0.9 pt
0.8 pt
2,787
Draw
25.0%
24.1%
-0.9 pt
0.8 pt
2,787
Away win
31.8%
31.9%
+0.1 pt
0.8 pt
2,787
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,433 fixtures · 67% closing, 27% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
48.5%
49.7%
+1.2 pt
1.0 pt
2,433
Under 2.5
51.5%
50.3%
-1.2 pt
1.0 pt
2,433
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 2,639 fixtures · 93% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
47.9%
48.6%
+0.7 pt
1.0 pt
2,639
Not both
52.1%
51.4%
-0.7 pt
1.0 pt
2,639
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 2,7873.2% · p90 4.1%
bet365 2,5686.5% · p90 7.6%
Ladbrokes 2,1716.5% · p90 9.0%
Unibet 2,6527.2% · p90 8.3%
WilliamHill 2,5317.4% · p90 10.1%
Betfair 2,6038.2% · p90 12.2%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9196Pinnacle log-loss2,183 fixtures
0.9469Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0273Provider minus market7.2 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 41%
24% · 27%
33% · 32%
306
2024/25
43% · 43%
25% · 26%
32% · 31%
306
2023/24
43% · 43%
24% · 25%
33% · 32%
306
2022/23
43% · 49%
25% · 18%
32% · 33%
298
2021/22
43% · 39%
25% · 29%
31% · 32%
304
2020/21
41% · 42%
26% · 25%
33% · 32%
351
2019/20
44% · 40%
25% · 26%
31% · 34%
259
2018/19
45% · 46%
25% · 21%
30% · 33%
296
2017/18
45% · 51%
25% · 20%
30% · 29%
295
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,964 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-14
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)655 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)168 · 2017-08-26 → 2025-01-12
Movement series (hourly + final hour)36 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated