Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-0.5 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 39.3% · won 38.8%± 6.9 pt · 0.1 SE · 49 sides
-1.6 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 13.0% · won 11.4%± 5.1 pt · 0.3 SE · 35 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 53 fixtures · 68% closing, 32% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
42.6%
41.5%
-1.1 pt
5.8 pt
53
Draw
23.4%
26.4%
+3.0 pt
6.0 pt
53
Away win
34.0%
32.1%
-1.9 pt
5.6 pt
53
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 53 fixtures · 68% closing, 32% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
50.3%
56.6%
+6.3 pt
6.7 pt
53
Under 2.5
49.6%
43.4%
-6.3 pt
6.7 pt
53
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 53 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
47.1%
49.1%
+2.0 pt
7.0 pt
53
Not both
52.9%
50.9%
-2.0 pt
7.0 pt
53
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 41%
24% · 27%
33% · 32%
306
2024/25
43% · 43%
25% · 26%
32% · 31%
306
2023/24
43% · 43%
24% · 25%
33% · 32%
306
2022/23
43% · 49%
25% · 18%
32% · 33%
298
2021/22
43% · 39%
25% · 29%
31% · 32%
304
2020/21
41% · 42%
26% · 25%
33% · 32%
351
2019/20
44% · 40%
25% · 26%
31% · 34%
259
2018/19
45% · 46%
25% · 21%
30% · 33%
296
2017/18
45% · 51%
25% · 20%
30% · 29%
295
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,964 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-14
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)655 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)168 · 2017-08-26 → 2025-01-12
Movement series (hourly + final hour)36 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated