Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+2.5 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.5% · won 73.9%± 1.3 pt · 1.9 SE · 1,086 sides
+0.7 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.0% · won 41.7%± 0.9 pt · 0.8 SE · 2,861 sides
-0.6 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.8% · won 14.3%± 0.8 pt · 0.7 SE · 1,905 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,926 fixtures · 76% closing, 22% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
46.3%
47.3%
+1.1 pt
0.8 pt
2,926
Draw
23.7%
22.4%
-1.3 pt
0.8 pt
2,926
Away win
30.0%
30.2%
+0.2 pt
0.8 pt
2,926
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,607 fixtures · 73% closing, 23% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
52.0%
52.7%
+0.8 pt
1.0 pt
2,607
Under 2.5
48.0%
47.3%
-0.8 pt
1.0 pt
2,607
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 2,661 fixtures · 96% closing, 1% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
49.8%
48.5%
-1.3 pt
1.0 pt
2,661
Not both
50.2%
51.5%
+1.3 pt
1.0 pt
2,661
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 2,9264.0% · p90 6.3%
Unibet 2,6095.7% · p90 8.3%
bet365 2,5456.0% · p90 8.9%
Ladbrokes 1,9526.3% · p90 7.3%
Betfair 2,8897.0% · p90 11.3%
WilliamHill 2,3857.3% · p90 10.9%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9244Pinnacle log-loss1,556 fixtures
0.9949Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0705Provider minus market8.4 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
46% · 48%
24% · 20%
30% · 32%
271
2024/25
47% · 50%
24% · 20%
29% · 30%
269
2023/24
47% · 51%
23% · 21%
30% · 28%
175
2022/23
46% · 49%
24% · 24%
30% · 27%
175
2021/22
46% · 43%
24% · 28%
30% · 29%
175
2020/21
44% · 45%
23% · 19%
33% · 36%
374
2019/20
46% · 46%
24% · 24%
30% · 30%
480
2018/19
47% · 49%
24% · 23%
29% · 29%
477
2017/18
46% · 44%
24% · 26%
30% · 29%
389
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,212 · 2017-05-24 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)644 · 2017-06-29 → 2026-08-14
Other (within the 24 h guard)70 · 2017-08-03 → 2026-07-16
Movement series (hourly + final hour)42 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated