Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+2.0 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 70.1% · won 72.0%± 2.3 pt · 0.9 SE · 365 sides
+2.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.1% · won 43.2%± 1.4 pt · 1.5 SE · 1,164 sides
-1.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.8% · won 14.7%± 1.3 pt · 0.8 SE · 687 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,108 fixtures · 55% closing, 45% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
46.5%
48.4%
+1.9 pt
1.4 pt
1,108
Draw
24.0%
21.8%
-2.2 pt
1.2 pt
1,108
Away win
29.5%
29.9%
+0.4 pt
1.3 pt
1,108
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 950 fixtures · 46% closing, 49% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
54.0%
54.6%
+0.6 pt
1.6 pt
950
Under 2.5
46.0%
45.4%
-0.6 pt
1.6 pt
950
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,102 fixtures · 99% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
52.3%
50.6%
-1.7 pt
1.5 pt
1,102
Not both
47.7%
49.4%
+1.7 pt
1.5 pt
1,102
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,1083.6% · p90 5.8%
Unibet 1,0845.6% · p90 7.6%
bet365 1,0955.9% · p90 9.0%
Ladbrokes 1,0686.5% · p90 7.3%
WilliamHill 1,1047.3% · p90 11.1%
Betfair 1,0629.6% · p90 11.7%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9349Pinnacle log-loss1,108 fixtures
0.9996Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0647Provider minus market7.0 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
46% · 48%
24% · 20%
30% · 32%
271
2024/25
47% · 50%
24% · 20%
29% · 30%
269
2023/24
47% · 51%
23% · 21%
30% · 28%
175
2022/23
46% · 49%
24% · 24%
30% · 27%
175
2021/22
46% · 43%
24% · 28%
30% · 29%
175
2020/21
44% · 45%
23% · 19%
33% · 36%
374
2019/20
46% · 46%
24% · 24%
30% · 30%
480
2018/19
47% · 49%
24% · 23%
29% · 29%
477
2017/18
46% · 44%
24% · 26%
30% · 29%
389
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,212 · 2017-05-24 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)644 · 2017-06-29 → 2026-08-14
Other (within the 24 h guard)70 · 2017-08-03 → 2026-07-16
Movement series (hourly + final hour)42 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated