Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-6.4 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.3% · won 65.8%± 6.9 pt · 0.9 SE · 41 sides
-0.6 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.4% · won 39.8%± 5.1 pt · 0.1 SE · 88 sides
+7.4 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.0% · won 21.3%± 5.1 pt · 1.4 SE · 61 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 95 fixtures · 45% closing, 54% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
47.6%
49.5%
+1.8 pt
4.7 pt
95
Draw
22.4%
21.1%
-1.4 pt
4.1 pt
95
Away win
29.9%
29.5%
-0.5 pt
4.5 pt
95
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 93 fixtures · 45% closing, 47% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
56.6%
53.8%
-2.8 pt
5.1 pt
93
Under 2.5
43.4%
46.2%
+2.8 pt
5.1 pt
93
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 95 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
51.2%
42.1%
-9.1 pt
4.9 pt
95
Not both
48.8%
57.9%
+9.1 pt
4.9 pt
95
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
46% · 48%
24% · 20%
30% · 32%
271
2024/25
47% · 50%
24% · 20%
29% · 30%
269
2023/24
47% · 51%
23% · 21%
30% · 28%
175
2022/23
46% · 49%
24% · 24%
30% · 27%
175
2021/22
46% · 43%
24% · 28%
30% · 29%
175
2020/21
44% · 45%
23% · 19%
33% · 36%
374
2019/20
46% · 46%
24% · 24%
30% · 30%
480
2018/19
47% · 49%
24% · 23%
29% · 29%
477
2017/18
46% · 44%
24% · 26%
30% · 29%
389
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,212 · 2017-05-24 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)644 · 2017-06-29 → 2026-08-14
Other (within the 24 h guard)70 · 2017-08-03 → 2026-07-16
Movement series (hourly + final hour)42 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated