Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+3.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 70.7% · won 73.9%± 1.5 pt · 2.2 SE · 859 sides
-0.4 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.3% · won 39.9%± 0.8 pt · 0.5 SE · 3,994 sides
-1.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.5% · won 15.4%± 0.8 pt · 1.4 SE · 2,081 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 3,467 fixtures · 72% closing, 22% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
44.6%
45.3%
+0.7 pt
0.8 pt
3,467
Draw
26.2%
26.5%
+0.3 pt
0.7 pt
3,467
Away win
29.2%
28.2%
-1.0 pt
0.7 pt
3,467
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,940 fixtures · 67% closing, 26% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
47.6%
46.7%
-0.9 pt
0.9 pt
2,940
Under 2.5
52.4%
53.3%
+0.9 pt
0.9 pt
2,940
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 3,268 fixtures · 93% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
49.0%
50.9%
+1.9 pt
0.9 pt
3,268
Not both
51.0%
49.1%
-1.9 pt
0.9 pt
3,268
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 3,4672.7% · p90 3.4%
Unibet 3,2704.1% · p90 6.4%
bet365 3,2155.5% · p90 6.4%
WilliamHill 3,1636.3% · p90 9.2%
Ladbrokes 2,7146.4% · p90 7.2%
Betfair 3,2487.1% · p90 10.8%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9684Pinnacle log-loss2,710 fixtures
0.9917Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0233Provider minus market6.3 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
44% · 49%
26% · 24%
29% · 27%
380
2024/25
45% · 44%
27% · 26%
29% · 30%
380
2023/24
45% · 44%
26% · 28%
29% · 28%
380
2022/23
44% · 49%
27% · 23%
29% · 28%
371
2021/22
44% · 43%
27% · 29%
29% · 27%
380
2020/21
42% · 41%
27% · 28%
31% · 31%
437
2019/20
45% · 47%
27% · 28%
29% · 24%
323
2018/19
45% · 44%
26% · 29%
29% · 27%
363
2017/18
47% · 48%
24% · 22%
29% · 30%
373
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,482 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)776 · 2017-05-21 → 2026-08-19
Other (within the 24 h guard)209 · 2017-08-18 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)53 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated