Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-1.5 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 38.1% · won 36.6%± 5.7 pt · 0.3 SE · 71 sides
+2.4 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.3% · won 16.7%± 6.8 pt · 0.3 SE · 30 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 59 fixtures · 90% closing, 10% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
44.5%
45.8%
+1.3 pt
6.0 pt
59
Draw
25.0%
23.7%
-1.3 pt
5.4 pt
59
Away win
30.5%
30.5%
+0.0 pt
5.3 pt
59
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 58 fixtures · 90% closing, 9% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
51.7%
55.2%
+3.4 pt
6.2 pt
58
Under 2.5
48.2%
44.8%
-3.4 pt
6.2 pt
58
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 59 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
51.3%
55.9%
+4.6 pt
6.5 pt
59
Not both
48.7%
44.1%
-4.6 pt
6.5 pt
59
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
44% · 49%
26% · 24%
29% · 27%
380
2024/25
45% · 44%
27% · 26%
29% · 30%
380
2023/24
45% · 44%
26% · 28%
29% · 28%
380
2022/23
44% · 49%
27% · 23%
29% · 28%
371
2021/22
44% · 43%
27% · 29%
29% · 27%
380
2020/21
42% · 41%
27% · 28%
31% · 31%
437
2019/20
45% · 47%
27% · 28%
29% · 24%
323
2018/19
45% · 44%
26% · 29%
29% · 27%
363
2017/18
47% · 48%
24% · 22%
29% · 30%
373
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,482 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-17
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)776 · 2017-05-21 → 2026-08-19
Other (within the 24 h guard)209 · 2017-08-18 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)53 · from 2026-08-20 · not evaluated