Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
Longshots are overpriced: priced 14.8%, won 13.1% (-1.7 pt, 1,522 sides, 2.0 SE)
+0.4 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.7% · won 73.1%± 1.4 pt · 0.3 SE · 949 sides
-0.5 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.6% · won 40.1%± 0.9 pt · 0.5 SE · 2,583 sides
-1.7 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.8% · won 13.1%± 0.9 pt · 2.0 SE · 1,522 sides · overpriced
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,527 fixtures · 70% closing, 24% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
45.6%
45.2%
-0.4 pt
0.9 pt
2,527
Draw
22.3%
23.7%
+1.4 pt
0.8 pt
2,527
Away win
32.1%
31.1%
-1.0 pt
0.8 pt
2,527
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,108 fixtures · 66% closing, 29% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
59.3%
59.2%
-0.1 pt
1.1 pt
2,108
Under 2.5
40.7%
40.8%
+0.1 pt
1.1 pt
2,108
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 2,582 fixtures · 93% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
55.8%
57.1%
+1.4 pt
1.0 pt
2,582
Not both
44.2%
42.9%
-1.4 pt
1.0 pt
2,582
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 2,5273.3% · p90 4.2%
Unibet 2,4425.5% · p90 6.7%
bet365 2,4965.9% · p90 7.0%
Ladbrokes 2,1276.5% · p90 9.6%
WilliamHill 2,3897.6% · p90 10.1%
Betfair 2,3788.5% · p90 12.4%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9295Pinnacle log-loss2,131 fixtures
0.9596Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0301Provider minus market7.0 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
46% · 45%
23% · 26%
31% · 29%
309
2024/25
46% · 46%
23% · 25%
31% · 29%
309
2023/24
46% · 43%
22% · 25%
32% · 32%
309
2022/23
45% · 43%
22% · 24%
32% · 32%
299
2021/22
45% · 44%
23% · 21%
32% · 35%
311
2020/21
44% · 42%
22% · 25%
34% · 33%
309
2019/20
47% · 52%
22% · 21%
32% · 27%
232
2018/19
46% · 54%
21% · 18%
33% · 28%
186
2017/18
46% · 47%
22% · 24%
32% · 29%
208
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,781 · 2017-11-18 → 2026-09-18
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)619 · 2017-11-18 → 2026-08-16
Other (within the 24 h guard)127 · 2017-12-01 → 2026-09-08
Movement series (hourly + final hour)36 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated