Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+0.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 72.6% · won 72.8%± 1.8 pt · 0.1 SE · 585 sides
-0.7 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.6% · won 39.9%± 1.2 pt · 0.5 SE · 1,575 sides
-2.3 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.8% · won 12.6%± 1.1 pt · 2.1 SE · 946 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,553 fixtures · 60% closing, 37% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
45.8%
43.5%
-2.3 pt
1.1 pt
1,553
Draw
22.5%
24.4%
+1.9 pt
1.1 pt
1,553
Away win
31.7%
32.1%
+0.4 pt
1.1 pt
1,553
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,262 fixtures · 50% closing, 45% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
58.8%
59.9%
+1.1 pt
1.4 pt
1,262
Under 2.5
41.2%
40.1%
-1.1 pt
1.4 pt
1,262
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,549 fixtures · 98% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
55.2%
57.6%
+2.4 pt
1.2 pt
1,549
Not both
44.8%
42.4%
-2.4 pt
1.2 pt
1,549
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,5533.4% · p90 4.0%
bet365 1,5475.6% · p90 6.7%
Unibet 1,5016.0% · p90 6.8%
Ladbrokes 1,5206.4% · p90 7.1%
WilliamHill 1,5507.7% · p90 9.8%
Betfair 1,40510.0% · p90 12.7%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9333Pinnacle log-loss1,551 fixtures
0.9566Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0233Provider minus market4.7 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
46% · 45%
23% · 26%
31% · 29%
309
2024/25
46% · 46%
23% · 25%
31% · 29%
309
2023/24
46% · 43%
22% · 25%
32% · 32%
309
2022/23
45% · 43%
22% · 24%
32% · 32%
299
2021/22
45% · 44%
23% · 21%
32% · 35%
311
2020/21
44% · 42%
22% · 25%
34% · 33%
309
2019/20
47% · 52%
22% · 21%
32% · 27%
232
2018/19
46% · 54%
21% · 18%
33% · 28%
186
2017/18
46% · 47%
22% · 24%
32% · 29%
208
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,781 · 2017-11-18 → 2026-09-18
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)619 · 2017-11-18 → 2026-08-16
Other (within the 24 h guard)127 · 2017-12-01 → 2026-09-08
Movement series (hourly + final hour)36 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated