Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-0.9 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 41.3% · won 40.4%± 7.0 pt · 0.1 SE · 47 sides
-2.7 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 14.1% · won 11.4%± 5.3 pt · 0.5 SE · 35 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 54 fixtures · 65% closing, 33% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
45.6%
27.8%
-17.8 pt
5.6 pt
54
Draw
20.4%
25.9%
+5.5 pt
6.1 pt
54
Away win
34.0%
46.3%
+12.3 pt
5.5 pt
54
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 54 fixtures · 65% closing, 31% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
67.2%
79.6%
+12.4 pt
5.7 pt
54
Under 2.5
32.8%
20.4%
-12.4 pt
5.7 pt
54
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 54 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
60.8%
74.1%
+13.3 pt
6.0 pt
54
Not both
39.2%
25.9%
-13.3 pt
6.0 pt
54
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
46% · 45%
23% · 26%
31% · 29%
309
2024/25
46% · 46%
23% · 25%
31% · 29%
309
2023/24
46% · 43%
22% · 25%
32% · 32%
309
2022/23
45% · 43%
22% · 24%
32% · 32%
299
2021/22
45% · 44%
23% · 21%
32% · 35%
311
2020/21
44% · 42%
22% · 25%
34% · 33%
309
2019/20
47% · 52%
22% · 21%
32% · 27%
232
2018/19
46% · 54%
21% · 18%
33% · 28%
186
2017/18
46% · 47%
22% · 24%
32% · 29%
208
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,780 · 2017-11-18 → 2026-09-15
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)619 · 2017-11-18 → 2026-08-16
Other (within the 24 h guard)127 · 2017-12-01 → 2026-09-08
Movement series (hourly + final hour)35 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated