Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+1.7 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.5% · won 73.2%± 1.3 pt · 1.3 SE · 1,113 sides
+0.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.5% · won 40.6%± 0.8 pt · 0.1 SE · 3,720 sides
+0.1 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 15.5% · won 15.7%± 0.8 pt · 0.2 SE · 2,069 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 3,451 fixtures · 69% closing, 26% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
43.9%
44.1%
+0.2 pt
0.8 pt
3,451
Draw
24.0%
23.3%
-0.7 pt
0.7 pt
3,451
Away win
32.1%
32.6%
+0.5 pt
0.7 pt
3,451
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 3,001 fixtures · 65% closing, 28% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
53.8%
54.1%
+0.3 pt
0.9 pt
3,001
Under 2.5
46.2%
45.9%
-0.3 pt
0.9 pt
3,001
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 3,222 fixtures · 92% closing, 4% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
52.7%
52.8%
+0.1 pt
0.9 pt
3,222
Not both
47.3%
47.2%
-0.1 pt
0.9 pt
3,222
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Unibet 3,2762.6% · p90 5.4%
Pinnacle 3,4512.6% · p90 3.3%
bet365 3,1615.4% · p90 6.1%
Betfair 3,2465.4% · p90 10.6%
WilliamHill 3,0866.2% · p90 8.8%
Ladbrokes 2,6916.2% · p90 7.1%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9656Pinnacle log-loss2,682 fixtures
0.9893Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0237Provider minus market6.1 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 43%
25% · 27%
32% · 30%
380
2024/25
45% · 41%
23% · 24%
32% · 35%
380
2023/24
45% · 46%
22% · 22%
32% · 32%
380
2022/23
44% · 49%
24% · 22%
32% · 29%
361
2021/22
43% · 43%
24% · 23%
32% · 34%
380
2020/21
41% · 40%
25% · 22%
34% · 39%
446
2019/20
45% · 44%
24% · 25%
31% · 31%
314
2018/19
45% · 48%
24% · 19%
31% · 33%
377
2017/18
44% · 46%
24% · 25%
31% · 29%
367
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,377 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-18
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)882 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-05-24
Other (within the 24 h guard)192 · 2017-08-26 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)41 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated