Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+0.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 70.9% · won 71.1%± 1.8 pt · 0.1 SE · 582 sides
+0.1 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.8% · won 40.9%± 1.1 pt · 0.1 SE · 2,067 sides
-0.8 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.0% · won 15.2%± 1.1 pt · 0.7 SE · 1,111 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,880 fixtures · 59% closing, 38% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
44.1%
43.9%
-0.2 pt
1.1 pt
1,880
Draw
23.8%
24.0%
+0.3 pt
1.0 pt
1,880
Away win
32.1%
32.0%
-0.1 pt
1.0 pt
1,880
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,538 fixtures · 48% closing, 44% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
55.6%
56.7%
+1.1 pt
1.2 pt
1,538
Under 2.5
44.4%
43.3%
-1.1 pt
1.2 pt
1,538
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,878 fixtures · 97% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
53.8%
55.4%
+1.6 pt
1.1 pt
1,878
Not both
46.2%
44.6%
-1.6 pt
1.1 pt
1,878
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,8802.8% · p90 3.3%
Unibet 1,8372.9% · p90 5.5%
bet365 1,8635.5% · p90 6.3%
Ladbrokes 1,8526.4% · p90 7.2%
WilliamHill 1,8706.4% · p90 8.1%
Betfair 1,7137.0% · p90 11.5%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9595Pinnacle log-loss1,880 fixtures
0.9854Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0259Provider minus market5.9 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 43%
25% · 27%
32% · 30%
380
2024/25
45% · 41%
23% · 24%
32% · 35%
380
2023/24
45% · 46%
22% · 22%
32% · 32%
380
2022/23
44% · 49%
24% · 22%
32% · 29%
361
2021/22
43% · 43%
24% · 23%
32% · 34%
380
2020/21
41% · 40%
25% · 22%
34% · 39%
446
2019/20
45% · 44%
24% · 25%
31% · 31%
314
2018/19
45% · 48%
24% · 19%
31% · 33%
377
2017/18
44% · 46%
24% · 25%
31% · 29%
367
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,376 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-14
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)882 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-05-24
Other (within the 24 h guard)192 · 2017-08-26 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)40 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated