Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-4.8 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 39.5% · won 34.7%± 6.8 pt · 0.7 SE · 49 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 40 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
42.8%
32.5%
-10.3 pt
7.2 pt
40
Draw
24.4%
35.0%
+10.6 pt
7.6 pt
40
Away win
32.8%
32.5%
-0.3 pt
6.9 pt
40
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 40 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
56.1%
52.5%
-3.6 pt
7.9 pt
40
Under 2.5
43.9%
47.5%
+3.6 pt
7.9 pt
40
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 40 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
55.3%
52.5%
-2.8 pt
7.9 pt
40
Not both
44.7%
47.5%
+2.8 pt
7.9 pt
40
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 43%
25% · 27%
32% · 30%
380
2024/25
45% · 41%
23% · 24%
32% · 35%
380
2023/24
45% · 46%
22% · 22%
32% · 32%
380
2022/23
44% · 49%
24% · 22%
32% · 29%
361
2021/22
43% · 43%
24% · 23%
32% · 34%
380
2020/21
41% · 40%
25% · 22%
34% · 39%
446
2019/20
45% · 44%
24% · 25%
31% · 31%
314
2018/19
45% · 48%
24% · 19%
31% · 33%
377
2017/18
44% · 46%
24% · 25%
31% · 29%
367
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)2,376 · 2017-05-12 → 2026-09-14
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)882 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-05-24
Other (within the 24 h guard)192 · 2017-08-26 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)40 · from 2026-08-21 · not evaluated