Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+0.7 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.4% · won 72.1%± 2.1 pt · 0.3 SE · 433 sides
-0.8 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.1% · won 39.2%± 1.1 pt · 0.7 SE · 1,780 sides
-0.8 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.3% · won 15.5%± 1.3 pt · 0.6 SE · 799 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,506 fixtures · 59% closing, 38% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
45.1%
44.1%
-1.0 pt
1.2 pt
1,506
Draw
23.5%
24.7%
+1.2 pt
1.1 pt
1,506
Away win
31.4%
31.2%
-0.2 pt
1.1 pt
1,506
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 1,153 fixtures · 48% closing, 45% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
57.9%
61.1%
+3.2 pt
1.4 pt
1,153
Under 2.5
42.1%
38.9%
-3.2 pt
1.4 pt
1,153
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 1,494 fixtures · 99% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
57.0%
60.1%
+3.2 pt
1.2 pt
1,494
Not both
43.0%
39.9%
-3.2 pt
1.2 pt
1,494
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 1,5062.8% · p90 3.4%
Unibet 1,4455.4% · p90 6.7%
bet365 1,4875.6% · p90 6.5%
Ladbrokes 1,4766.5% · p90 7.1%
WilliamHill 1,4956.6% · p90 8.5%
Betfair 1,3529.0% · p90 10.7%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
0.9709Pinnacle log-loss1,506 fixtures
0.9957Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0248Provider minus market5.1 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
45% · 44%
24% · 25%
32% · 32%
306
2024/25
45% · 39%
23% · 25%
31% · 36%
305
2023/24
46% · 44%
23% · 26%
31% · 30%
306
2022/23
45% · 47%
24% · 25%
31% · 28%
297
2021/22
45% · 47%
24% · 24%
32% · 29%
306
2020/21
42% · 42%
24% · 26%
34% · 31%
306
2019/20
44% · 40%
23% · 22%
33% · 38%
306
2018/19
45% · 46%
24% · 24%
32% · 31%
298
2017/18
46% · 47%
25% · 25%
29% · 27%
211
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,916 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-18
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)614 · 2017-08-20 → 2026-05-16
Other (within the 24 h guard)157 · 2017-08-26 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)28 · from 2026-08-28 · not evaluated