Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+0.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 71.2% · won 71.4%± 1.6 pt · 0.1 SE · 779 sides
-0.7 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 40.2% · won 39.5%± 0.9 pt · 0.8 SE · 3,144 sides
-1.0 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 16.2% · won 15.2%± 0.9 pt · 1.1 SE · 1,449 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,686 fixtures · 71% closing, 23% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
44.6%
43.8%
-0.9 pt
0.9 pt
2,686
Draw
23.6%
24.8%
+1.2 pt
0.8 pt
2,686
Away win
31.8%
31.4%
-0.4 pt
0.8 pt
2,686
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 2,260 fixtures · 67% closing, 25% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
57.6%
59.7%
+2.0 pt
1.0 pt
2,260
Under 2.5
42.4%
40.3%
-2.0 pt
1.0 pt
2,260
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 2,582 fixtures · 92% closing, 4% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
56.8%
59.1%
+2.4 pt
1.0 pt
2,582
Not both
43.2%
40.9%
-2.4 pt
1.0 pt
2,582
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 2,6862.7% · p90 3.4%
Unibet 2,5435.4% · p90 6.6%
bet365 2,5425.6% · p90 6.6%
Ladbrokes 2,1726.4% · p90 7.1%
WilliamHill 2,4776.4% · p90 9.4%
Betfair 2,5197.2% · p90 10.3%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
0.9731Pinnacle log-loss2,159 fixtures
1.0019Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0288Provider minus market6.7 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
45% · 44%
24% · 25%
32% · 32%
306
2024/25
45% · 39%
23% · 25%
31% · 36%
305
2023/24
46% · 44%
23% · 26%
31% · 30%
306
2022/23
45% · 47%
24% · 25%
31% · 28%
297
2021/22
45% · 47%
24% · 24%
32% · 29%
306
2020/21
42% · 42%
24% · 26%
34% · 31%
306
2019/20
44% · 40%
23% · 22%
33% · 38%
306
2018/19
45% · 46%
24% · 24%
32% · 31%
298
2017/18
46% · 47%
25% · 25%
29% · 27%
211
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)1,915 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-09-13
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)614 · 2017-08-20 → 2026-05-16
Other (within the 24 h guard)157 · 2017-08-26 → 2024-10-05
Movement series (hourly + final hour)27 · from 2026-08-28 · not evaluated