Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · since 2017
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+1.3 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 66.5% · won 67.7%± 2.0 pt · 0.7 SE · 561 sides
+0.5 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 39.3% · won 39.7%± 0.6 pt · 0.8 SE · 7,393 sides
-0.2 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 18.9% · won 18.8%± 0.8 pt · 0.2 SE · 2,200 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 5,077 fixtures · 70% closing, 25% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
42.7%
42.9%
+0.3 pt
0.7 pt
5,077
Draw
27.3%
26.5%
-0.8 pt
0.6 pt
5,077
Away win
30.1%
30.6%
+0.5 pt
0.6 pt
5,077
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · since 2017 · 4,529 fixtures · 66% closing, 28% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
48.0%
47.6%
-0.5 pt
0.7 pt
4,529
Under 2.5
52.0%
52.4%
+0.5 pt
0.7 pt
4,529
Both teams to score · bet365 · since 2017 · 4,739 fixtures · 91% closing, 3% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
50.8%
50.8%
+0.0 pt
0.7 pt
4,739
Not both
49.2%
49.2%
+0.0 pt
0.7 pt
4,739
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · since 2017
Pinnacle 5,0772.9% · p90 3.7%
Unibet 4,7694.4% · p90 6.6%
bet365 4,5935.5% · p90 6.7%
Ladbrokes 3,9516.3% · p90 7.1%
Betfair 4,8096.8% · p90 12.4%
WilliamHill 4,5167.0% · p90 9.7%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · since 2017 · lower is better
1.0380Pinnacle log-loss3,967 fixtures
1.0556Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0176Provider minus market6.1 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 41%
26% · 27%
30% · 32%
557
2024/25
43% · 46%
27% · 28%
30% · 26%
557
2023/24
44% · 45%
26% · 24%
31% · 32%
557
2022/23
43% · 41%
28% · 27%
29% · 32%
542
2021/22
42% · 44%
28% · 25%
30% · 30%
556
2020/21
40% · 41%
28% · 25%
32% · 34%
639
2019/20
43% · 42%
27% · 28%
30% · 30%
475
2018/19
43% · 44%
28% · 29%
30% · 27%
555
2017/18
43% · 43%
27% · 27%
29% · 30%
551
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)3,540 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-18
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)1,255 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)282 · 2017-08-15 → 2026-05-23
Movement series (hourly + final hour)72 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated