Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · last 5 years
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
+0.2 ptFavourites (≥ 60%)priced 67.0% · won 67.2%± 2.5 pt · 0.1 SE · 338 sides
+0.6 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 39.5% · won 40.1%± 0.8 pt · 0.8 SE · 3,937 sides
+0.4 ptLongshots (≤ 25%)priced 18.9% · won 19.3%± 1.1 pt · 0.4 SE · 1,241 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 2,758 fixtures · 58% closing, 39% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
43.0%
43.6%
+0.6 pt
0.9 pt
2,758
Draw
27.0%
25.9%
-1.1 pt
0.8 pt
2,758
Away win
30.0%
30.5%
+0.5 pt
0.9 pt
2,758
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · last 5 years · 2,262 fixtures · 48% closing, 48% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
48.5%
48.4%
-0.1 pt
1.0 pt
2,262
Under 2.5
51.5%
51.6%
+0.1 pt
1.0 pt
2,262
Both teams to score · bet365 · last 5 years · 2,756 fixtures · 96% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
50.6%
51.4%
+0.8 pt
0.9 pt
2,756
Not both
49.4%
48.5%
-0.8 pt
0.9 pt
2,756
What each book charges · 1X2 overround (sum of implied probabilities minus 1), median and 90th pct per book · last 5 years
Pinnacle 2,7583.2% · p90 3.7%
bet365 2,7505.8% · p90 6.9%
Unibet 2,6716.0% · p90 6.7%
Ladbrokes 2,7146.5% · p90 7.3%
WilliamHill 2,7407.3% · p90 9.0%
Betfair 2,5268.7% · p90 12.8%
Market vs the provider's model · log-loss on the 90-minute result, fixtures both priced · last 5 years · lower is better
1.0335Pinnacle log-loss2,758 fixtures
1.0524Provider log-losssame fixtures
+0.0189Provider minus market5.6 SE
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 41%
26% · 27%
30% · 32%
557
2024/25
43% · 46%
27% · 28%
30% · 26%
557
2023/24
44% · 45%
26% · 24%
31% · 32%
557
2022/23
43% · 41%
28% · 27%
29% · 32%
542
2021/22
42% · 44%
28% · 25%
30% · 30%
556
2020/21
40% · 41%
28% · 25%
32% · 34%
639
2019/20
43% · 42%
27% · 28%
30% · 30%
475
2018/19
43% · 44%
28% · 29%
30% · 27%
555
2017/18
43% · 43%
27% · 27%
29% · 30%
551
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)3,540 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-18
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)1,255 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)282 · 2017-08-15 → 2026-05-23
Movement series (hourly + final hour)72 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated