Every figure carries its n and standard error. A verdict appears only on the favourite / longshot buckets at 2 SE with at least 1,000 sides, and only where it matches all competitions. Nothing here is about a team.
Where the price is wrong · Pinnacle 1X2, each fixture counted once per side · this season
No verdict at this scope: each bucket sits within 2 SE of its price, has fewer than 1,000 sides, or does not match the pooled all-competitions row.
-0.3 ptMid-range (25–60%)priced 38.7% · won 38.5%± 4.2 pt · 0.1 SE · 130 sides
the band curve is built for all / domestic / cups over the full and 5-year windows only — thinner cells would be noise
Calibration · price vs what happened, per outcome
Match result (1X2) · Pinnacle · this season · 83 fixtures · 86% closing, 14% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Home win
42.9%
41.0%
-2.0 pt
5.2 pt
83
Draw
26.3%
28.9%
+2.6 pt
5.0 pt
83
Away win
30.7%
30.1%
-0.6 pt
4.9 pt
83
Over / under 2.5 · Pinnacle · this season · 83 fixtures · 86% closing, 14% T-8h
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Over 2.5
51.8%
62.6%
+10.9 pt
5.3 pt
83
Under 2.5
48.2%
37.4%
-10.9 pt
5.3 pt
83
Both teams to score · bet365 · this season · 83 fixtures · 100% closing, 0% T-8h · bet365 fair price (Pinnacle stopped pricing BTTS on 14 Apr 2026); bet365 runs ~1 pt under Pinnacle on 'yes'
Outcome
Priced
Actual
Residual
SE
n
Both score
54.6%
66.3%
+11.7 pt
5.2 pt
83
Not both
45.4%
33.7%
-11.7 pt
5.2 pt
83
How the market has priced home advantage · Pinnacle 1X2, price the market put on each outcome vs what happened, Jul–Jun seasons; the current season is partial
Season
Home priced · actual
Draw
Away
n
2025/26
43% · 41%
26% · 27%
30% · 32%
557
2024/25
43% · 46%
27% · 28%
30% · 26%
557
2023/24
44% · 45%
26% · 24%
31% · 32%
557
2022/23
43% · 41%
28% · 27%
29% · 32%
542
2021/22
42% · 44%
28% · 25%
30% · 30%
556
2020/21
40% · 41%
28% · 25%
32% · 34%
639
2019/20
43% · 42%
27% · 28%
30% · 30%
475
2018/19
43% · 44%
28% · 29%
30% · 27%
555
2017/18
43% · 43%
27% · 27%
29% · 30%
551
Coverage · Pinnacle 1X2 fixtures per line regime; movement is coverage only — not evaluated until the series holds a season
Closing line (within 2 h of kick-off)3,539 · 2017-05-14 → 2026-09-15
T-8h line (2025 onward prematch)1,255 · 2017-05-13 → 2026-08-17
Other (within the 24 h guard)282 · 2017-08-15 → 2026-05-23
Movement series (hourly + final hour)71 · from 2026-08-22 · not evaluated