Rating 7.33 (95th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (9% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Team 1.97 ppg with (32) · 1.17 without (6)
Serie A · Matchweek 7
Momentum
– AC MilanFiorentina –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Loading statistics…
Season context
| AC Milan | at home | Stat | league | away | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.8 #8 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 51.0 #9 |
| 13.2 #5 | – | Shots total | 12.3 | – | 12.9 #9 |
| 4.4 #7 | – | Shots on target | 4.0 | – | 3.4 #16 |
| 4.3 #11 | – | Corners | 4.4 | – | 4.5 #9 |
| 10.1 #20 | – | Fouls | 12.7 | – | 12.4 #12 |
| 1.9 #3 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.7 #6 |
| 14.5 #13 | – | Tackles | 15.2 | – | 12.3 #19 |
| 99.2 #7 | – | Attacks | 92.8 | – | 89.4 #12 |
| 47.0 #7 | – | Dangerous attacks | 42.4 | – | 39.0 #10 |
| 483.7 #8 | – | Passes | 431.5 | – | 423.6 #10 |
| 1.7 #16 | – | Yellowcards | 1.9 | – | 2.2 #3 |
| 0.0 #13 | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #7 |
| 1.0 #6 | – | Assists | 0.8 | – | 0.6 #15 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 45.3 | – | – #1 |
| – #5 | – | Cleansheet | 32.1 | – | – #14 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 26.1 | – | – #1 |
| 1.6 #5 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.4 #8 |
| -0.2 #15 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.3 #17 |
| – #18 | – | Failed to score | 32.1 | – | – #10 |
| 1.4 #6 | 1.3 | Goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 #12 |
| 0.9 #16 | 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 #7 |
| 0.2 #13 | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #7 |
| 6.6 #19 | – | Interceptions | 7.9 | – | 7.4 #12 |
| – #16 | – | Lost | 37.0 | – | – #11 |
| 0.2 #1 | – | Penalties scored | 0.1 | – | 0.2 #2 |
| 6.9 #4 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #9 |
| 3.3 #10 | – | Shots blocked | 3.4 | – | 3.8 #4 |
| 9.2 #6 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.9 | – | 8.1 #9 |
| 5.6 #7 | – | Shots off target | 5.0 | – | 5.6 #6 |
| 4.1 #16 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 4.8 #6 |
| – #4 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #17 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 380 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.43 (home 1.28 · away 1.15)
- Home / draw / away
- 39% · 26% · 35%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 45% · 46%
- Cards / match
- 4.11 (reds 0.16)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
AC Milan · 2025/2026 · Serie A
Rating 7.25 (93th pct) · G+A 6 + 4 (19% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 2.0 ppg with (28) · 1.4 without (10)
Rating 7.13 (91th pct) · G+A 3 + 3 (11% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Team 1.73 ppg with (33) · 2.6 without (5)
Fiorentina · 2025/2026 · Serie A
Rating 7.2 (91th pct) · G+A 2 + 3 (12% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.17 ppg with (30) · 0.88 without (8)
Rating 6.91 (72th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (7% of team goals) · 92% of minutes
Rating 6.87 (56th pct) · G+A 0 + 0 (0% of team goals) · 97% of minutes
Absences
AC Milan
- injury Ardon Jashari #14 key player midfielder · Broken Fibula · 9 missed · until 2025-10-31
Fiorentina
- injury Christian Kouamé attacker · Cruciate Ligament Tear · 21 missed · until 2025-11-25
- injury Tariq Lamptey defender · Cruciate Ligament Injury · 19 missed · until 2026-05-15
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 7
Venue
- Stadium
- Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
- Capacity
- 75,817
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 71,475
Teams
- Coaches
- Massimiliano Allegri · Stefano Pioli
- Position
- 4 · 18
- Formation
- 3-5-2 · 3-5-1-1
Referee
Livio Marinelli
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 15.1° (feels 14.1°)
- Wind
- 2.4
- Humidity
- 55%
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2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter |
38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 35 | 54 | 87 | DWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli |
38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 76 | WDLWW |
| 3 |  Roma |
38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 73 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  Como |
38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 29 | 36 | 71 | WDWWW |
| 5 |  AC Milan |
38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 70 | DLLWL |
| 6 |  Juventus |
38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 69 | DDWLD |
| 7 |  Atalanta |
38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 36 | 15 | 59 | LDWLD |
| 8 |  Bologna |
38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 56 | LDWWD |
| 9 |  Lazio |
38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 54 | DWLLW |
| 10 |  Udinese |
38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 50 | DWWLL |
| 11 |  Sassuolo |
38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 49 | DWLLL |
| 12 |  Torino |
38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 45 | DLWLD |
| 13 |  Parma |
38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 45 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  Cagliari |
38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 43 | WDLWW |
| 15 |  Fiorentina |
38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 42 | DLDWD |
| 16 |  Genoa |
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 41 | LDDLL |
| 17 |  Lecce |
38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 38 | DWLWW |
| 18 |  Cremonese |
38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 34 | LLWWL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona |
38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 21 | DDLDL |
| 20 |  Pisa |
38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 18 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 45 | DWWDD |
| 2 | Napoli |
19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 43 | WDLWW |
| 3 | Roma |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 10 | 23 | 42 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Juventus |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 37 | DDWLD |
| 5 | Como |
19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 36 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Atalanta |
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 | LDWLD |
| 7 | AC Milan |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 32 | DLLWL |
| 8 | Lazio |
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 30 | DWLLW |
| 9 | Sassuolo |
19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Torino |
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 28 | DLWLD |
| 11 | Cagliari |
19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 25 | WDLWW |
| 12 | Udinese |
19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 23 | DWWLL |
| 13 | Genoa |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 14 | Bologna |
19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 22 | LDWWD |
| 15 | Fiorentina |
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 | DLDWD |
| 16 | Parma |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 21 | WLLLW |
| 17 | Lecce |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 18 | Cremonese |
19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 | LLWWL |
| 19 | Pisa |
19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 10 | LLLLL |
| 20 | Hellas Verona |
19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 8 | DDLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 42 | DWWDD |
| 2 | AC Milan |
19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 38 | DLLWL |
| 3 | Como |
19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 16 | 35 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Bologna |
19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 34 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Napoli |
19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 33 | WDLWW |
| 6 | Juventus |
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 32 | DDWLD |
| 7 | Roma |
19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 8 | Udinese |
19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 27 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Atalanta |
19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 26 | LDWLD |
| 10 | Lazio |
19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 24 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Parma |
19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 24 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Fiorentina |
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 21 | DLDWD |
| 13 | Sassuolo |
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 20 | DWLLL |
| 14 | Genoa |
19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 19 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Lecce |
19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 18 | DWLWW |
| 16 | Cagliari |
19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 18 | WDLWW |
| 17 | Cremonese |
19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 18 | LLWWL |
| 18 | Torino |
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 17 | DLWLD |
| 19 | Hellas Verona |
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 13 | DDLDL |
| 20 | Pisa |
19 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 8 | LLLLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
AC Milan
WWWWD 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 1 · xG 6.79–5.41 · xPts 8.32
- D
A
Juventus
0–0
xG 1.96–1.08
ITA SA
- W
H
Napoli
2–1
xG 1.0–2.85
ITA SA
- W
A
Udinese
3–0
xG 1.54–0.45
ITA SA
- W
H
Bologna
1–0
xG 1.06–0.4
ITA SA
- W
A
Lecce
2–0
xG 1.24–0.62
ITA SA
LWWWWD 4W 1D 1L · 13 pts (2.17 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 9.43–5.74 · xPts 11.02
- D
A
Juventus
0–0
xG 1.96–1.08
ITA SA
- W
H
Napoli
2–1
xG 1.0–2.85
ITA SA
- W
A
Udinese
3–0
xG 1.54–0.45
ITA SA
- W
H
Bologna
1–0
xG 1.06–0.4
ITA SA
- W
A
Lecce
2–0
xG 1.24–0.62
ITA SA
- L
H
Cremonese
1–2
xG 2.64–0.33
ITA SA
Fiorentina
LLDWL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 6.13–7.24 · xPts 6.27
- L
H
Roma
1–2
xG 1.03–1.63
ITA SA
- W
H
Sigma Olomouc
2–0
xG 1.28–0.39
UEFA ECL - D
A
Pisa
0–0
xG 1.22–0.95
ITA SA
- L
H
Como
1–2
xG 0.42–1.27
ITA SA
- L
H
Napoli
1–3
xG 2.18–3.0
ITA SA
WDWDLLDWL 3W 3D 3L · 12 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 12 GA 10 · xG 13.27–11.02 · xPts 13.79
- L
H
Roma
1–2
xG 1.03–1.63
ITA SA
- W
H
Sigma Olomouc
2–0
xG 1.28–0.39
UEFA ECL
- D
A
Pisa
0–0
xG 1.22–0.95
ITA SA
- L
H
Como
1–2
xG 0.42–1.27
ITA SA
- L
H
Napoli
1–3
xG 2.18–3.0
ITA SA
- D
A
Torino
0–0
xG 1.6–0.82
ITA SA
- W
H
Polissya Zhytomyr
3–2
xG 2.56–0.34
UEFA ECL - D
A
Cagliari
1–1
xG 0.93–1.08
ITA SA
- W
A
Polissya Zhytomyr
3–0
xG 2.06–1.54
UEFA ECL
All meetings · 42 matches since 2005
Goals 59–47 · 2.52 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 48%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 16–14 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 70%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 8–7 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 80%
Recent meetings
- D Fiorentina 1–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
- D AC Milan 2–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
- L Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W Fiorentina 1–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 1–0 Fiorentina neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- L Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- W AC Milan 1–0 Fiorentina neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
- L Fiorentina 4–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
| Metric | AC Milan all · 38 | AC Milan at home · 19 | Fiorentina all · 38 | Fiorentina away · 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 38 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Points per game | 1.84 | 1.68 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| W / D / L | 20 / 10 / 8 | 9 / 5 / 5 | 9 / 15 / 14 | 5 / 6 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| Goals against / match | 0.92 | 1.11 | 1.32 | 1.53 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 37% | 26% | 21% |
| Failed to score | 18% | 16% | 29% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 58% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 53% | 50% | 58% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.59 | 1.84 | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| xG against / match | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.43 | 1.72 |
| xG difference | 0.35 | 0.59 | -0.08 | -0.60 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.20 | -0.52 | -0.28 | -0.07 |
| xPts / match | 1.59 | 1.73 | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.25 | -0.05 | -0.23 | 0.07 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 58% | 53% | 45% | 47% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.50 | 2.50 | 1.82 | 1.89 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| Came back from behind | 50% | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Leads held | 77% | 75% | 45% | 46% |
| Minutes leading | 28% | 27% | 21% | 20% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 51% | 53% | 56% |
| Minutes trailing | 19% | 21% | 26% | 24% |
| First goal (min) | 46 | 46 | 46 | 40 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 38 | 44 | 48 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 62% | 60% | 58% | 55% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 51% | 52% | 60% | 69% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| Late goals against | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 52% | 54% | 51% | 50% |
| Shots | 13.2 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 10.1 |
| On target | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 69% | 68% | 63% | 64% |
| Big chances created | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 27% | 32% | 39% |
| Goals from headers | 13% | 16% | 10% | 5% |
| Pressure index | 15.2 | 18.4 | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.1 | 56.3 | 47.7 | 40.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88% | 84% | 83% |
| Fouls | 10.1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 12.9 |
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.95 | 2.29 | 2.42 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'55
16–30'37
31–45'125
46–60'136
61–75'66
76–90'146
Fiorentina
0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AC Milan · 5 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022
Game state
When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564
Situations
At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055
Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22
Fiorentina · 4 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094
Game state
When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492
Situations
At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174
Opposition
v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192
Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 34 90% | 1.85 | 1.41 | 0.88 | 1.59 | 1.28 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 5% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.15 | 0.51 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
Fiorentina
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 15 40% | 1.8 | 1.27 | 0.93 | 1.15 | 1.44 |
| 3-5-2 | 8 21% | 0.38 | 1.0 | 1.88 | 1.71 | 1.41 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 3 8% | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.0 | 1.42 | 1.41 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 3 8% | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.0 | 1.06 | 1.22 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 3 8% | 0.0 | 0.33 | 2.67 | 0.97 | 2.24 |
| Metric | AC Milan all · 10 | AC Milan at home · 10 | Fiorentina all · 10 | Fiorentina away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 3 / 4 | 3 / 2 / 5 | 2 / 4 / 4 | 5 / 1 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.70 | 1.90 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% | 70% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.42 | 1.59 | 1.24 | 1.00 |
| xG against / match | 1.41 | 1.32 | 1.61 | 1.90 |
| xG difference | 0.01 | 0.27 | -0.37 | -0.90 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.22 | -0.59 | -0.34 | 0.40 |
| xPts / match | 1.36 | 1.54 | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.16 | -0.44 | -0.20 | 0.72 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Came back from behind | 20% | 17% | 20% | 33% |
| Leads held | 60% | 75% | 40% | 83% |
| Minutes leading | 14% | 15% | 25% | 26% |
| Minutes level | 49% | 52% | 50% | 39% |
| Minutes trailing | 37% | 33% | 24% | 35% |
| First goal (min) | 58 | 49 | 36 | 45 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 32 | 45 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 92% | 70% | 44% | 57% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 43% | 59% | 58% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 56% | 45% | 47% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 10.4 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 7% | 7% | 14% |
| Shots inside box | 65% | 64% | 62% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 21% | 11% | 16% |
| Goals from headers | 8% | 10% | 11% | 7% |
| Pressure index | 14.4 | 15.9 | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 53.8 | 55.7 | 40.3 | 37.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 89% | 82% | 82% |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'13
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'14
61–75'60
76–90'43
Fiorentina
0–15'01
16–30'34
31–45'22
46–60'13
61–75'13
76–90'24
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 3-5-2 | 5 50% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.61 |
Fiorentina
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 8 80% | 0.88 | 0.63 | 1.37 | 1.13 | 1.54 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.99 | 0.64 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.32 | 3.1 |
| Metric | AC Milan all · 40 | AC Milan at home · 19 | Fiorentina all · 51 | Fiorentina away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 40 | 19 | 51 | 25 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.68 | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| W / D / L | 20 / 12 / 8 | 9 / 5 / 5 | 17 / 13 / 21 | 9 / 4 / 12 |
| Goals for / match | 1.40 | 1.32 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Goals against / match | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.41 | 1.64 |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 37% | 24% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 21% | 29% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% | 55% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 47% | 61% | 72% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.58 | 1.85 | 1.48 | 1.29 |
| xG against / match | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.40 | 1.76 |
| xG difference | 0.28 | 0.54 | 0.08 | -0.46 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.18 | -0.53 | -0.25 | -0.01 |
| xPts / match | 1.54 | 1.70 | 1.44 | 1.14 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.26 | -0.01 | -0.19 | 0.10 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 58% | 53% | 43% | 44% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.43 | 2.50 | 1.91 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| Came back from behind | 53% | 50% | 32% | 25% |
| Leads held | 74% | 75% | 59% | 60% |
| Minutes leading | 27% | 27% | 24% | 24% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 23% | 26% | 27% |
| First goal (min) | 47 | 47 | 43 | 37 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 44 | 37 | 43 | 44 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 66% | 64% | 61% | 59% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 51% | 52% | 61% | 68% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 53% | 55% | 50% | 48% |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 11.2 |
| On target | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Shot conversion | 11% | 8% | 9% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 69% | 67% | 65% | 67% |
| Big chances created | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 28% | 31% | 32% |
| Goals from headers | 9% | 12% | 10% | 6% |
| Pressure index | 15.8 | 19.5 | 13.7 | 9.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 51.8 | 58.2 | 48.6 | 40.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 88% | 84% | 82% |
| Fouls | 10.1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.84 | 2.39 | 2.36 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
AC Milan
0–15'56
16–30'37
31–45'116
46–60'137
61–75'105
76–90'148
Fiorentina
0–15'56
16–30'1312
31–45'610
46–60'1416
61–75'1111
76–90'1216
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
AC Milan · 40 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.24) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.92
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2440
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0540
Late push (76+, level)+0.0719
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.6410
Game state
When ahead+0.0927
When level+0.1740
When behind+0.6117
10 min after conceding+0.0726
10 min after scoring+0.6432
Situations
With ten men-0.035
Against ten men-0.782
At home+0.3119
Away+0.1721
3 days rest or fewer+0.722
4+ days rest+0.2138
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.1412
v mid-tier opponents+0.2510
v bottom-tier opponents+0.924
As favourite+0.4725
Evenly matched-0.1313
As underdog-0.322
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0540
Conceded when ahead+0.0927
Conceded late (76+)-0.0636
Congested vs rested +0.52 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.43
Fiorentina · 51 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1151
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0251
Late push (76+, level)+0.0722
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0218
Game state
When ahead-0.0429
When level+0.1551
When behind+0.1730
10 min after conceding+0.0538
10 min after scoring+0.4335
Situations
With ten men+0.054
Against ten men-0.404
At home+0.2426
Away-0.0225
3 days rest or fewer+0.0012
4+ days rest+0.1439
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.2012
v mid-tier opponents+0.1810
v bottom-tier opponents+0.166
As favourite+0.3224
Evenly matched+0.0014
As underdog-0.1513
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0951
Conceded when ahead+0.0629
Conceded late (76+)+0.0145
Congested vs rested -0.14 · Ahead vs level -0.19 · Behind vs level +0.02
AC Milan
Current: winless 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | 33 82% | 1.91 | 1.42 | 0.85 | 1.56 | 1.31 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 12% | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.38 | 1.5 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
Fiorentina
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 18 35% | 1.5 | 1.11 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.51 |
| 3-5-2 | 12 24% | 1.0 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| 4-4-2 | 4 8% | 1.5 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.19 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 3 6% | 0.0 | 0.33 | 2.67 | 0.97 | 2.24 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 3 6% | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.0 | 1.42 | 1.41 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.72Home 55% P 56%3.6Draw 26% P 26%5.0Away 19% P 18%
Double Chance
1.16AC Milan or Draw 40% P 41%1.28AC Milan or Fiorentina 37% P 37%2.05Draw or Fiorentina 23% P 22%
Draw No Bet
1.251 75%3.752 25%
Both Teams To Score
2.0Yes 47% P 47%1.75No 53% P 53%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.1Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%
Total Corners
7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%
Number of Cards
3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 56% | 56% | 53% | -2.8 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 26% | +1.0 |
| Away | 18% | 19% | 21% | +1.8 |
In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%
Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | 46% | 47% | +0.3 |
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 44% | 43% | -1.2 |
Livio Marinelli
- Career
- 71 matches · 10 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.04 (3.83 yellow · 0.13 red)
- Fouls / match
- 23.8 · 5.9 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.34
- Cards to home side
- 54%
Style in Serie A (5-year window · 61 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.93 | 4.49 | -0.80 | 22 |
| Fouls / match | 23.7 | 25.2 | -0.93 | |
| Fouls per card | 6.0 | 5.6 | +0.19 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.36 | 0.31 | +0.30 | 66 |
| Time added | 6.8 | 6.4 | +0.78 | 78 |
- First card
- 34' on average
- Card timing
- 18% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 56% (league 46%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.19
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 31' | 8 |
| 2025-08-29 · AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 64' | 10 |
| 2025-05-25 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 47' | 8 |
| 2025-05-18 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 87' | 5 |
| 2025-05-09 · AC Milan | 4 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 37' | 7 |
| 2025-04-23 · Fiorentina | 4 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 65' | 10 |
| 2025-02-28 · Fiorentina | 5 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 17' | 6 |
| 2025-02-17 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 12' | 4 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 54' | 7 |
| 2025-01-26 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 16' | 4 |