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Serie A · Matchweek 7

Momentum

RomaInter
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
7

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Capacity
72,698
Surface
grass
Attendance
65,849

Teams

Coaches
Gian Gasperini · Cristian Chivu
Position
2 · 5
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Davide Massa

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
20.1° (feels 19.3°)
Wind
3.9
Humidity
46%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Roma

WWWLW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 3 · xG 7.85–5.22 · xPts 8.42

  • W A Fiorentina 2–1 xG 1.63–1.03 ITA SA
  • L H LOSC Lille 0–1 xG 2.87–1.11 UEFA EL
  • W H Hellas Verona 2–0 xG 0.84–1.39 ITA SA
  • W A Nice 2–1 xG 1.06–1.04 UEFA EL
  • W A Lazio 1–0 xG 1.44–0.66 ITA SA

Inter

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 13 GA 2 · xG 12.45–2.41 · xPts 12.47

  • W H Cremonese 4–1 xG 2.72–0.63 ITA SA
  • W H Slavia Praha 3–0 xG 3.43–0.11 UEFA CL
  • W A Cagliari 2–0 xG 2.58–0.21 ITA SA
  • W H Sassuolo 2–1 xG 2.1–0.54 ITA SA
  • W A Ajax 2–0 xG 1.63–0.92 UEFA CL

All meetings · 42 matches since 2005

Roma 1214 draws16 Inter

Goals 59–69 · 3.05 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Roma 20 draws8 Inter

Goals 8–21 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Roma 10 draws4 Inter

Goals 5–11 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Inter 5–2 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 0–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 0–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 0–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 2–4 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 1–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 0–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 1–2 Roma neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 3–1 Roma neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 0–3 Inter neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricRoma all · 38Roma at home · 19Inter all · 38Inter away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.922.212.292.21
W / D / L23 / 4 / 1113 / 3 / 327 / 6 / 513 / 3 / 3
Goals for / match1.551.742.342.05
Goals against / match0.820.530.921.00
Clean sheets47%58%47%53%
Failed to score18%16%5%5%
Both teams scored34%26%47%42%
Over 2.537%32%55%47%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.481.571.941.64
xG against / match0.990.730.901.03
xG difference0.490.851.040.61
Finishing vs xG0.070.160.400.41
xPts / match1.701.912.001.77
Points vs xPts0.220.300.290.44
Game state
Scored first66%74%84%79%
PPG when scoring first2.722.862.532.60
PPG when conceding first0.380.401.000.75
Came back from behind27%40%38%40%
Leads held88%93%77%76%
Minutes leading40%41%52%50%
Minutes level44%46%39%37%
Minutes trailing16%12%10%12%
First goal (min)36422929
First goal conceded (min)46495044
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%58%58%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half68%70%54%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.240.320.550.47
Late goals against0.260.210.320.26
Style
Possession56%58%60%60%
Shots13.215.317.116.0
On target4.75.26.05.2
Shot conversion12%11%14%13%
Shots inside box74%75%72%68%
Big chances created2.22.43.93.0
Corners5.25.76.35.3
xG from set plays31%27%28%26%
Goals from headers20%27%23%29%
Pressure index18.621.023.021.1
Dominant minutes61.968.066.161.9
Pass accuracy83%85%87%87%
Fouls13.812.713.113.1
Cards1.891.631.682.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Roma

0–15'85
16–30'90
31–45'105
46–60'108
61–75'133
76–90'910

Inter

0–15'122
16–30'115
31–45'149
46–60'153
61–75'164
76–90'2112

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-130 79%1.91.630.871.450.98
3-4-1-24 10%2.251.250.251.710.58
3-5-23 8%1.331.331.331.781.78
3-4-31 3%3.01.00.00.780.6

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-238 100%2.292.340.921.940.9

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.5Home 27% P 26%3.25Draw 29% P 29%2.15Away 44% P 45%

Double Chance

1.66Roma or Draw 28% P 28%1.33Roma or Inter Milan 35% P 35%1.28Draw or Inter Milan 37% P 37%

Draw No Bet

2.51 38%1.52 62%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 52%1.95No 48% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

6.5Under 6 13%2.626 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%15.0Over 14 6%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46%1.72Under 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 42.5–45% · 322 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home26%27%26%-0.8
Draw29%29%32%+2.9
Away45%44%42%-2.0

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 39%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Davide Massa

Career
316 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
4.86 (4.64 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
25.0 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 79 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.24.48+1.0188
Fouls / match26.825.1+1.12
Fouls per card5.25.6-0.61 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.31-0.9712
Time added6.46.4-0.0442
First card
32' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-02 30 291 30'9
2025-09-14 30 280 13'6
2025-08-28 20 270 33'3
2025-08-23 50 290 22'5
2025-08-12 20 210 40'8
2025-05-23 · Inter 31 190 12'8
2025-05-10 91 240 21'9
2025-05-03 20 150 66'14
2025-04-20 30 330 46'5
2025-04-17 60 161 42'11