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Serie A · Matchweek 12

Momentum

InterAC Milan
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
12

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Capacity
75,817
Surface
grass
Attendance
75,562

Teams

Coaches
Cristian Chivu · Massimiliano Allegri
Position
3 · 5
Formation
3-5-2 · 3-5-2

Referee

Simone Sozza

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
4.5° (feels 4.5°)
Wind
0.5
Humidity
84%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Inter

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 5 · xG 10.36–3.69 · xPts 10.92

  • W H Lazio 2–0 xG 1.89–0.52 ITA SA
  • W H Kairat 2–1 xG 2.64–0.2 UEFA CL
  • W A Hellas Verona 2–1 xG 1.07–0.58 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 3–0 xG 2.94–1.0 ITA SA
  • L A Napoli 1–3 xG 1.82–1.39 ITA SA

AC Milan

WDDWD 2W 3D 0L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 9.44–7.72 · xPts 7.82

  • D A Parma 2–2 xG 1.83–1.41 ITA SA
  • W H Roma 1–0 xG 3.33–2.31 ITA SA
  • D A Atalanta 1–1 xG 0.46–1.76 ITA SA
  • D H Pisa 2–2 xG 1.66–1.14 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 2–1 xG 2.16–1.1 ITA SA

All meetings · 48 matches since 2003

Inter 2310 draws15 AC Milan

Goals 69–55 · 2.58 per match · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 48%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Inter 51 draws4 AC Milan

Goals 15–10 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Inter 11 draws3 AC Milan

Goals 4–6 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L AC Milan 1–0 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 0–1 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D AC Milan 1–1 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Inter 1–2 AC Milan neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W AC Milan 1–2 Inter ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 5–1 AC Milan neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Inter 1–0 AC Milan UEFA CL · Semi-finals · leg 2/2
  • W AC Milan 0–2 Inter neutral UEFA CL · Semi-finals · leg 1/2
  • W Inter 1–0 AC Milan neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 3–2 Inter neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricInter all · 38Inter at home · 19AC Milan all · 38AC Milan away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game2.292.371.842.00
W / D / L27 / 6 / 514 / 3 / 220 / 10 / 811 / 5 / 3
Goals for / match2.342.631.391.47
Goals against / match0.920.840.920.74
Clean sheets47%42%40%42%
Failed to score5%5%18%21%
Both teams scored47%53%47%42%
Over 2.555%63%45%37%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.942.241.591.34
xG against / match0.900.771.241.24
xG difference1.041.470.350.10
Finishing vs xG0.400.39-0.200.13
xPts / match2.002.221.591.46
Points vs xPts0.290.150.250.54
Game state
Scored first84%90%58%63%
PPG when scoring first2.532.472.502.50
PPG when conceding first1.001.500.931.17
Came back from behind38%33%50%50%
Leads held77%78%77%79%
Minutes leading52%53%28%29%
Minutes level39%40%53%55%
Minutes trailing10%7%19%16%
First goal (min)29294646
First goal conceded (min)50564246
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%62%62%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half54%56%51%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.550.630.370.42
Late goals against0.320.370.160.11
Style
Possession60%60%52%50%
Shots17.118.213.210.4
On target6.06.84.43.8
Shot conversion14%14%10%14%
Shots inside box72%75%69%71%
Big chances created3.94.72.62.6
Corners6.37.44.33.6
xG from set plays28%30%29%32%
Goals from headers23%18%13%11%
Pressure index23.024.915.211.9
Dominant minutes66.170.351.146.0
Pass accuracy87%88%87%86%
Fouls13.113.210.110.0
Cards1.681.371.821.68

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Inter

0–15'122
16–30'115
31–45'149
46–60'153
61–75'164
76–90'2112

AC Milan

0–15'55
16–30'37
31–45'125
46–60'136
61–75'66
76–90'146

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Inter · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.71) · stands out: when behind +1.11

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.715
Early press (0-15, level)+0.205
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.202

Game state

When ahead+0.584
When level+0.455
When behind+1.113
10 min after conceding+0.514
10 min after scoring+0.425

Situations

At home+0.523
Away+0.962
4+ days rest+0.674

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.752
As favourite+0.674

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.365
Conceded when ahead-0.414
Conceded late (76+)-0.414

Congested vs rested +0.20 · Ahead vs level +0.13 · Behind vs level +0.66

AC Milan · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564

Situations

At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055

Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22

Inter

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 15 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-238 100%2.292.340.921.940.9

AC Milan

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-234 90%1.851.410.881.591.28
3-4-2-12 5%3.01.50.01.150.51
4-3-31 3%0.00.03.02.381.5
3-1-4-21 3%1.02.02.01.661.14

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.05Home 46% P 47%3.2Draw 30% P 30%4.0Away 24% P 23%

Double Chance

1.28Inter Milan or Draw 37% P 39%1.33Inter Milan or AC Milan 35% P 35%1.7Draw or AC Milan 28% P 27%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 52%1.9No 50% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 45%1.72Under 55% P 55%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

4.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 22.5–25% · 565 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%48%+1.4
Draw30%30%28%-1.5
Away23%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 41%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.545%46%45%-1.2

Simone Sozza

Career
103 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.41 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.49
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 69 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.484.49-0.0249
Fouls / match25.725.2+0.40
Fouls per card5.75.6-0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.480.31+1.2485
Time added6.36.4-0.2427
First card
34' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.42

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-05 50 160 41'7
2025-10-29 · Inter 31 271 49'5
2025-10-19 71 271 28'8
2025-09-27 31 130 32'7
2025-09-21 21 360 83'10
2025-09-18 40 201 10'7
2025-08-28 15 38'5
2025-08-24 60 320 43'10
2025-07-30 30 240 45'8
2025-05-12 10 280 90'6