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Serie A · Matchweek 13

Momentum

AtalantaFiorentina
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
13

Venue

Stadium
Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
Capacity
23,439
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,591

Teams

Coaches
Raffaele Palladino · Paolo Vanoli
Position
13 · 19
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
6.7° (feels 6.7°)
Wind
0.5
Humidity
78%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Atalanta

LWLLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 7.24–6.38 · xPts 7.24

  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 xG 2.91–1.02 UEFA CL
  • L A Napoli 1–3 xG 0.97–1.84 ITA SA
  • L H Sassuolo 0–3 xG 1.36–2.06 ITA SA
  • W A Olympique Marseille 1–0 xG 1.44–0.81 UEFA CL
  • L A Udinese 0–1 xG 0.57–0.64 ITA SA

Fiorentina

LLDDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 6.97–7.05 · xPts 6.76

  • L H AEK Athens 0–1 xG 1.24–1.55 UEFA ECL
  • D H Juventus 1–1 xG 0.86–1.49 ITA SA
  • D A Genoa 2–2 xG 1.4–1.63 ITA SA
  • L A FSV Mainz 05 1–2 xG 2.19–1.46 UEFA ECL
  • L H Lecce 0–1 xG 1.27–0.92 ITA SA

All meetings · 38 matches since 2006

Atalanta 911 draws18 Fiorentina

Goals 48–62 · 2.89 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 55%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Atalanta 32 draws5 Fiorentina

Goals 13–14 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Atalanta 21 draws2 Fiorentina

Goals 8–7 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 3–2 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 1–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Atalanta 1–2 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricAtalanta all · 38Atalanta at home · 19Fiorentina all · 38Fiorentina away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.551.741.111.11
W / D / L15 / 14 / 99 / 6 / 49 / 15 / 145 / 6 / 8
Goals for / match1.341.321.081.05
Goals against / match0.950.791.321.53
Clean sheets34%37%26%21%
Failed to score21%32%29%37%
Both teams scored53%42%58%53%
Over 2.537%37%50%58%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.951.361.12
xG against / match1.180.931.431.72
xG difference0.531.01-0.08-0.60
Finishing vs xG-0.36-0.63-0.28-0.07
xPts / match1.711.991.331.03
Points vs xPts-0.16-0.25-0.230.07
Game state
Scored first50%47%45%47%
PPG when scoring first2.472.781.821.89
PPG when conceding first0.560.750.380.25
Came back from behind44%50%30%20%
Leads held75%90%45%46%
Minutes leading28%33%21%20%
Minutes level51%51%53%56%
Minutes trailing21%16%26%24%
First goal (min)46314640
First goal conceded (min)48484448
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%52%58%55%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%60%60%69%
Late goals for (76'+)0.340.260.180.16
Late goals against0.240.160.320.37
Style
Possession55%56%51%50%
Shots14.817.112.910.1
On target4.65.13.42.8
Shot conversion9%8%8%10%
Shots inside box66%66%63%64%
Big chances created2.53.02.21.8
Corners5.76.84.43.4
xG from set plays25%28%32%39%
Goals from headers14%24%10%5%
Pressure index15.919.213.18.9
Dominant minutes55.461.747.740.7
Pass accuracy84%85%84%83%
Fouls11.811.412.412.9
Cards1.681.262.292.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Atalanta

0–15'83
16–30'58
31–45'117
46–60'84
61–75'65
76–90'139

Fiorentina

0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Atalanta · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.46

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.066
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late push (76+, level)-0.393
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.582

Game state

When ahead-0.174
When level-0.086
When behind+0.312
10 min after conceding-0.463
10 min after scoring+0.205

Situations

At home+0.024
Away-0.212
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.023
As favourite+0.025

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.466
Conceded when ahead+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.076

Congested vs rested -0.08 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.39

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Atalanta

Current: winless 2 · scoring 5 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-134 90%1.651.410.911.711.2
3-4-1-23 8%0.670.671.331.640.91
4-3-31 3%1.01.01.01.921.05

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-315 40%1.81.270.931.151.44
3-5-28 21%0.381.01.881.711.41
3-5-1-13 8%0.00.332.670.972.24
4-1-4-13 8%0.670.671.01.421.41
3-4-2-13 8%0.670.671.01.061.22

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.66Home 57% P 59%3.8Draw 25% P 24%5.0Away 19% P 16%

Double Chance

1.16Atalanta or Draw 41% P 42%1.25Atalanta or Fiorentina 38% P 38%2.15Draw or Fiorentina 22% P 20%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 51%1.95No 48% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

6.0Under 6 15%2.66 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 32%6.012 - 14 15%15.0Over 14 6%

Number of Cards

4.51.72Over 54%2.0Under 46%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 15–17.5% · 555 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home59%59%57%-1.5
Draw24%25%28%+3.8
Away16%16%14%-2.2

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 49%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Matteo Marcenaro

Career
53 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
5.3 (4.96 yellow · 0.28 red)
Fouls / match
24.7 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.3
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 49 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.49+0.7276
Fouls / match24.325.2-0.50
Fouls per card4.95.6-0.96 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.330.31+0.0358
Time added6.36.4-0.2427
First card
30' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 30% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.17

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-07 60 280 17'5
2025-10-29 50 320 26'8
2025-10-18 30 180 10'6
2025-09-14 50 330 10'8
2025-08-24 31 220 14'6
2025-07-24 20 150 43'8
2025-07-15 71 330 14'6
2025-05-25 · Fiorentina 51 210 9'6
2025-04-13 40 250 31'2
2024-12-23 · Fiorentina 70 241 5'9