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Serie A · Matchweek 14

Momentum

LazioBologna
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
14

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Capacity
72,698
Surface
grass
Attendance
43,325

Teams

Coaches
Maurizio Sarri · Vincenzo Italiano
Position
10 · 5
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Michael Fabbri

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
12.8° (feels 12.0°)
Wind
0.5
Humidity
71%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Lazio

DWLWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 3 · xG 4.63–6.22 · xPts 5.72

  • L A AC Milan 0–1 xG 0.84–1.33 ITA SA
  • W H Lecce 2–0 xG 1.61–0.5 ITA SA
  • L A Inter 0–2 xG 0.52–1.89 ITA SA
  • W H Cagliari 2–0 xG 1.04–1.56 ITA SA
  • D A Pisa 0–0 xG 0.62–0.93 ITA SA

Bologna

DWWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 12.21–5.0 · xPts 10.8

  • L H Cremonese 1–3 xG 3.1–1.54 ITA SA
  • W H Salzburg 4–1 xG 4.41–1.17 UEFA EL
  • W A Udinese 3–0 xG 2.62–1.64 ITA SA
  • W H Napoli 2–0 xG 0.93–0.22 ITA SA
  • D H Brann 0–0 xG 1.15–0.43 UEFA EL

All meetings · 35 matches since 2008

Lazio 1710 draws8 Bologna

Goals 54–39 · 2.66 per match · BTTS 46% · over 2.5 51%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Lazio 52 draws3 Bologna

Goals 13–10 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Lazio 31 draws1 Bologna

Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Bologna 0–1 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Bologna 0–2 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Lazio 1–1 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Bologna 5–0 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lazio 3–0 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Lazio 1–2 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Bologna 1–0 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Bologna 0–0 Lazio ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lazio 2–1 Bologna ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Lazio 3–0 Bologna neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricLazio all · 38Lazio at home · 19Bologna all · 38Bologna away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.421.581.471.79
W / D / L14 / 12 / 128 / 6 / 516 / 8 / 1410 / 4 / 5
Goals for / match1.081.421.291.58
Goals against / match1.051.321.211.21
Clean sheets40%32%32%26%
Failed to score45%32%29%16%
Both teams scored29%42%45%58%
Over 2.532%47%45%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.171.311.321.21
xG against / match1.361.421.121.24
xG difference-0.19-0.120.20-0.03
Finishing vs xG-0.090.12-0.030.37
xPts / match1.231.281.491.36
Points vs xPts0.190.30-0.010.43
Game state
Scored first42%47%47%58%
PPG when scoring first2.502.562.332.36
PPG when conceding first0.530.670.671.00
Came back from behind33%50%30%44%
Leads held70%67%70%71%
Minutes leading21%28%26%35%
Minutes level54%45%54%50%
Minutes trailing25%27%20%15%
First goal (min)42364440
First goal conceded (min)35284646
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%56%57%53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half52%44%63%70%
Late goals for (76'+)0.390.530.260.37
Late goals against0.180.260.240.32
Style
Possession50%50%55%54%
Shots11.012.212.911.1
On target4.14.73.83.8
Shot conversion10%12%10%14%
Shots inside box61%61%63%63%
Big chances created1.91.91.81.9
Corners3.74.64.53.7
xG from set plays30%30%30%27%
Goals from headers7%11%6%0%
Pressure index12.214.613.813.2
Dominant minutes45.049.054.052.2
Pass accuracy86%86%82%82%
Fouls10.610.913.113.4
Cards2.292.471.972.53

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Lazio

0–15'65
16–30'47
31–45'67
46–60'67
61–75'47
76–90'157

Bologna

0–15'35
16–30'83
31–45'109
46–60'129
61–75'611
76–90'109

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Lazio · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.62

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.034
Early press (0-15, level)+0.254
Late push (76+, level)-0.102

Game state

When ahead+0.134
When level-0.104
10 min after conceding-0.612
10 min after scoring+0.624

Situations

At home-0.172
Away+0.232
4+ days rest+0.034

Opposition

Evenly matched+0.173

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.004
Conceded when ahead-0.064
Conceded late (76+)-0.244

Ahead vs level +0.23 · Behind vs level +0.30

Bologna · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.21) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.62

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.214
Early press (0-15, level)+0.624
Late push (76+, level)+0.202
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.234

Game state

When level+0.394
When behind-0.104
10 min after conceding+0.384

Situations

At home+0.092
Away+0.342
4+ days rest+0.214

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.342
v mid-tier opponents+0.092
As underdog+0.342

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded late (76+)-0.144

Behind vs level -0.48

Lazio

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-336 95%1.390.971.031.121.37
4-2-3-12 5%2.03.01.52.031.32

Bologna

Current: winless 5 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-127 71%1.481.371.191.431.15
4-3-38 21%1.631.131.131.020.89
4-1-4-12 5%1.51.51.51.311.64
3-4-2-11 3%0.00.02.00.711.4

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 41% P 41%3.0Draw 31% P 31%3.4Away 27% P 27%

Double Chance

1.36Lazio or Draw 35% P 36%1.36Lazio or Bologna 35% P 34%1.53Draw or Bologna 31% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 54%1.95No 48% P 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 46%1.72Under 55% P 54%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.66Over 56%2.1Under 44%
5.51.8Over 51%1.9Under 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 25–27.5% · 232 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%42%47%+5.0
Draw31%32%29%-2.8
Away27%27%25%-2.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 41%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes54%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Michael Fabbri

Career
176 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.58 (4.35 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
24.3 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.27
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 70 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.574.48+0.1256
Fouls / match24.125.1-0.67
Fouls per card5.35.6-0.56 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.31-1.0010
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
33' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-29 40 280 27'6
2025-11-01 40 250 64'5
2025-10-20 60 290 6'4
2025-05-25 · Lazio 62 220 32'9
2025-05-10 41 370 22'8
2025-04-27 30 200 3'7
2025-04-14 20 240 42'2
2025-03-16 50 220 13'3
2025-03-07 40 310 48'6
2025-02-14 · Bologna 40 241 52'6