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Serie A · Matchweek 15

Momentum

FiorentinaVER
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
Capacity
43,147
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,967

Teams

Coaches
Paolo Vanoli · Paolo Zanetti
Position
20 · 19
Formation
3-5-2 · 3-5-2

Referee

Andrea Colombo

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
-0.9° (feels -0.9°)
Wind
0.8
Humidity
41%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Fiorentina

DLLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 8.22–7.06 · xPts 7.35

  • W H Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 xG 2.98–0.57 UEFA ECL
  • L A Sassuolo 1–3 xG 1.33–1.17 ITA SA
  • L A Atalanta 0–2 xG 1.81–2.28 ITA SA
  • L H AEK Athens 0–1 xG 1.24–1.55 UEFA ECL
  • D H Juventus 1–1 xG 0.86–1.49 ITA SA

Hellas Verona

LDLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 6.5–6.75 · xPts 6.4

  • W H Atalanta 3–1 xG 1.37–1.78 ITA SA
  • L A Genoa 1–2 xG 2.84–1.79 ITA SA
  • L H Parma 1–2 xG 0.87–1.25 ITA SA
  • D A Lecce 0–0 xG 0.85–0.86 ITA SA
  • L H Inter 1–2 xG 0.58–1.07 ITA SA

All meetings · 22 matches since 2013

Fiorentina 115 draws6 Hellas Verona

Goals 38–25 · 2.86 per match · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 46%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Fiorentina 52 draws3 Hellas Verona

Goals 14–8 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Fiorentina 20 draws3 Hellas Verona

Goals 6–6 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Hellas Verona 0–1 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Fiorentina 1–2 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Hellas Verona 1–0 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 3–1 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Hellas Verona 2–1 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 1–0 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Hellas Verona 0–3 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Fiorentina 2–0 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Fiorentina 1–1 Hellas Verona ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Hellas Verona 1–1 Fiorentina ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricFiorentina all · 38Fiorentina at home · 19Hellas Verona all · 38Hellas Verona away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.111.110.550.68
W / D / L9 / 15 / 144 / 9 / 63 / 12 / 232 / 7 / 10
Goals for / match1.081.110.660.68
Goals against / match1.321.111.611.74
Clean sheets26%32%16%16%
Failed to score29%21%53%47%
Both teams scored58%63%47%53%
Over 2.550%42%50%58%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.361.590.981.08
xG against / match1.431.151.291.53
xG difference-0.080.45-0.32-0.44
Finishing vs xG-0.28-0.49-0.32-0.40
xPts / match1.331.631.171.12
Points vs xPts-0.23-0.53-0.62-0.44
Game state
Scored first45%42%18%21%
PPG when scoring first1.821.751.291.25
PPG when conceding first0.380.500.240.42
Came back from behind30%40%15%23%
Leads held45%44%38%40%
Minutes leading21%22%9%10%
Minutes level53%51%58%54%
Minutes trailing26%27%33%36%
First goal (min)46504144
First goal conceded (min)44404035
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half58%62%40%38%
Goals conceded in 2nd half60%48%61%58%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.210.050.11
Late goals against0.320.260.500.37
Style
Possession51%52%40%37%
Shots12.915.711.111.3
On target3.44.13.73.5
Shot conversion8%7%6%6%
Shots inside box63%62%56%58%
Big chances created2.22.61.41.6
Corners4.45.53.93.1
xG from set plays32%27%26%30%
Goals from headers10%14%4%0%
Pressure index13.117.37.45.0
Dominant minutes47.754.732.124.2
Pass accuracy84%85%74%73%
Fouls12.411.915.816.6
Cards2.292.162.552.84

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Fiorentina

0–15'48
16–30'76
31–45'66
46–60'1010
61–75'78
76–90'712

Hellas Verona

0–15'18
16–30'76
31–45'710
46–60'39
61–75'59
76–90'219

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Fiorentina · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.17) · stands out: 10 min after conceding +0.33

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.174
Early press (0-15, level)+0.094

Game state

When ahead+0.082
When level+0.224
When behind+0.194
10 min after conceding+0.334
10 min after scoring+0.492

Situations

At home+0.192
Away+0.152
4+ days rest+0.174

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.422
As favourite+0.192

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.244
Conceded when ahead+0.202
Conceded late (76+)+0.192

Ahead vs level -0.14 · Behind vs level -0.03

Hellas Verona

No pressure profile yet.

Fiorentina

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-315 40%1.81.270.931.151.44
3-5-28 21%0.381.01.881.711.41
3-4-2-13 8%0.670.671.01.061.22
3-5-1-13 8%0.00.332.670.972.24
4-1-4-13 8%0.670.671.01.421.41

Hellas Verona

Current: winless 10 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-226 68%0.50.771.771.031.21
3-5-1-14 10%0.50.251.250.61.85
3-4-2-14 10%0.250.251.750.631.06
3-1-4-22 5%0.50.00.51.371.23
5-3-22 5%2.01.51.01.361.83

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 48%3.2Draw 30% P 30%4.1Away 23% P 22%

Double Chance

1.22Fiorentina or Draw 39% P 39%1.36Fiorentina or Verona 35% P 35%1.8Draw or Verona 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 47%1.75No 53% P 53%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.37Over 40% P 39%1.57Under 60% P 61%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.72Over 54% P 58%2.0Under 46% P 42%
5.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 20–22.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%49%47%-2.2
Draw30%29%33%+3.5
Away22%22%20%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes47%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.539%39%39%+0.7

Andrea Colombo

Career
72 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
5.17 (4.96 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
24.9 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.21
Cards to home side
42%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.49+0.7276
Fouls / match25.225.2+0.05
Fouls per card5.15.6-0.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.160.31-1.315
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
30' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
42% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.37

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-11 31 250 19'5
2025-10-26 60 290 30'6
2025-10-05 · Fiorentina 50 400 3'8
2025-10-02 40 190 49'5
2025-09-21 20 5
2025-09-13 40 240 33'6
2025-08-28 61 211 3'10
2025-07-30 40 251 69'4
2025-05-25 30 281 20'8
2025-05-04 102 250 34'8