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Serie A · Matchweek 15

Momentum

AC MilanSassuolo
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Capacity
75,817
Surface
grass
Attendance
73,446

Teams

Coaches
Massimiliano Allegri · Raffaele Longo
Position
1 · 10
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-3-3

Referee

Valerio Crezzini

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
11.9° (feels 11.1°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
74%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

AC Milan

WDWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 9.38–7.57 · xPts 7.96

  • W A Torino 3–2 xG 2.12–1.08 ITA SA
  • W H Lazio 1–0 xG 1.33–0.84 ITA SA
  • W A Inter 1–0 xG 0.78–1.94 ITA SA
  • D A Parma 2–2 xG 1.83–1.41 ITA SA
  • W H Roma 1–0 xG 3.33–2.31 ITA SA

Sassuolo

LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 7 · xG 7.56–7.23 · xPts 6.92

  • W H Fiorentina 3–1 xG 1.17–1.33 ITA SA
  • L A Como 0–2 xG 0.78–1.4 ITA SA
  • D H Pisa 2–2 xG 2.41–1.63 ITA SA
  • W A Atalanta 3–0 xG 2.06–1.36 ITA SA
  • L H Genoa 1–2 xG 1.15–1.52 ITA SA

All meetings · 24 matches since 2014

AC Milan 115 draws8 Sassuolo

Goals 40–37 · 3.21 per match · BTTS 62% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

AC Milan 33 draws4 Sassuolo

Goals 15–18 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

AC Milan 12 draws2 Sassuolo

Goals 8–12 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Sassuolo 2–0 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D AC Milan 2–2 Sassuolo ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Sassuolo 3–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W AC Milan 1–0 Sassuolo neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 2–5 Sassuolo neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Sassuolo 0–0 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Sassuolo 0–3 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 1–3 Sassuolo neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L AC Milan 1–2 Sassuolo neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Sassuolo 1–2 AC Milan ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricAC Milan all · 38AC Milan at home · 19Sassuolo all · 38Sassuolo away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.841.681.291.05
W / D / L20 / 10 / 89 / 5 / 514 / 7 / 175 / 5 / 9
Goals for / match1.391.321.211.11
Goals against / match0.921.111.321.26
Clean sheets40%37%21%21%
Failed to score18%16%32%32%
Both teams scored47%53%53%58%
Over 2.545%53%55%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.591.841.151.14
xG against / match1.241.241.441.52
xG difference0.350.59-0.29-0.38
Finishing vs xG-0.20-0.520.06-0.04
xPts / match1.591.731.201.15
Points vs xPts0.25-0.050.09-0.10
Game state
Scored first58%53%37%32%
PPG when scoring first2.502.502.502.17
PPG when conceding first0.930.750.550.45
Came back from behind50%50%29%31%
Leads held77%75%82%71%
Minutes leading28%27%22%15%
Minutes level53%51%47%55%
Minutes trailing19%21%31%31%
First goal (min)46463850
First goal conceded (min)42383236
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%60%59%76%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%52%52%58%
Late goals for (76'+)0.370.320.160.11
Late goals against0.160.210.320.37
Style
Possession52%54%46%45%
Shots13.216.110.710.6
On target4.44.93.73.8
Shot conversion10%8%11%10%
Shots inside box69%68%66%66%
Big chances created2.62.62.12.0
Corners4.34.93.83.7
xG from set plays29%27%29%33%
Goals from headers13%16%9%10%
Pressure index15.218.49.07.3
Dominant minutes51.156.338.634.6
Pass accuracy87%88%82%82%
Fouls10.110.312.012.2
Cards1.821.952.372.42

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

AC Milan

0–15'55
16–30'37
31–45'125
46–60'136
61–75'66
76–90'146

Sassuolo

0–15'811
16–30'49
31–45'74
46–60'118
61–75'106
76–90'612

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

AC Milan · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.45) · stands out: as favourite +0.69

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.455
Early press (0-15, level)+0.485
Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.083
When level+0.495
When behind+0.712
10 min after conceding+0.404
10 min after scoring+0.564

Situations

At home+0.472
Away+0.443
4+ days rest+0.455

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.693

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.175
Conceded when ahead+0.003
Conceded late (76+)-0.055

Ahead vs level -0.56 · Behind vs level +0.22

Sassuolo · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.50

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.094
Early press (0-15, level)-0.244
Late push (76+, level)-0.503

Game state

When ahead+0.143
When level-0.074
10 min after conceding-0.424
10 min after scoring+0.184

Situations

At home-0.032
Away+0.222
4+ days rest+0.094

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.112
As underdog+0.073

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.104
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.234

Ahead vs level +0.21 · Behind vs level +0.50

AC Milan

Current: winless 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-234 90%1.851.410.881.591.28
3-4-2-12 5%3.01.50.01.150.51
3-1-4-21 3%1.02.02.01.661.14
4-3-31 3%0.00.03.02.381.5

Sassuolo

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-336 95%1.251.191.331.181.42
4-4-21 3%1.01.01.00.762.32
4-2-3-11 3%3.02.01.00.641.57

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.45Home 65% P 65%4.5Draw 21% P 22%6.5Away 14% P 13%

Double Chance

1.11AC Milan or Draw 42% P 43%1.18AC Milan or Sassuolo 40% P 39%2.62Draw or Sassuolo 18% P 18%

Draw No Bet

1.141 83%5.52 17%

Both Teams To Score

2.05Yes 45% P 46%1.7No 55% P 54%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 50%1.9Under 50% P 50%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 50%2.0Under 46% P 50%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 12.5–15% · 544 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home65%64%63%-0.9
Draw22%22%24%+2.1
Away13%14%13%-1.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 55%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes46%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%49%50%+1.3

Valerio Crezzini

Career
12 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
3.25 (3.25 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
26.0 · 8.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.25
Cards to home side
36%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 10 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.74.49-1.1310
Fouls / match26.025.2+0.59
Fouls per card8.45.6+2.61 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.30.31-0.1951
Time added7.56.4+2.22100
First card
40' on average
Card timing
8% in first 30' · 51% in last 15'
Cards to home side
36% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-11-29 60 320 39'6
2025-11-09 · Sassuolo 20 171 36'9
2025-10-29 40 170 38'8
2025-10-18 · Sassuolo 40 300 82'11
2025-09-22 30 281 50'11
2025-08-31 27 3
2025-05-11 50 290 13'5