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Serie A · Matchweek 15

Momentum

TorinoCremonese
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
15

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino
Capacity
28,177
Surface
grass
Attendance
18,297

Teams

Coaches
Marco Baroni · Davide Nicola
Position
15 · 8
Formation
3-4-1-2 · 3-5-2

Referee

Livio Marinelli

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
11.9° (feels 10.7°)
Wind
1.0
Humidity
60%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Torino

DDLLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 12 · xG 6.55–8.62 · xPts 5.67

  • L H AC Milan 2–3 xG 1.08–2.12 ITA SA
  • L A Lecce 1–2 xG 1.73–0.86 ITA SA
  • L H Como 1–5 xG 1.5–2.34 ITA SA
  • D A Juventus 0–0 xG 0.86–1.44 ITA SA
  • D H Pisa 2–2 xG 1.36–1.85 ITA SA

Cremonese

LLLWW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 6.01–8.67 · xPts 5.34

  • W H Lecce 2–0 xG 1.93–1.17 ITA SA
  • W A Bologna 3–1 xG 1.54–3.1 ITA SA
  • L H Roma 1–3 xG 0.97–1.33 ITA SA
  • L A Pisa 0–1 xG 0.97–1.2 ITA SA
  • L H Juventus 1–2 xG 0.61–1.87 ITA SA

All meetings · 4 matches since 2022

Torino 22 draws0 Cremonese

Goals 5–3 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Torino 22 draws0 Cremonese

Goals 5–3 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Torino 22 draws0 Cremonese

Goals 5–3 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • D Cremonese 0–0 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Torino 1–0 Cremonese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Torino 2–2 Cremonese ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Cremonese 1–2 Torino ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricTorino all · 38Torino at home · 19Cremonese all · 38Cremonese away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.181.470.890.95
W / D / L12 / 9 / 178 / 4 / 78 / 10 / 205 / 3 / 11
Goals for / match1.161.420.840.74
Goals against / match1.661.531.501.47
Clean sheets32%26%29%26%
Failed to score29%16%45%53%
Both teams scored50%63%42%32%
Over 2.563%68%45%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.221.380.950.73
xG against / match1.481.601.591.77
xG difference-0.26-0.22-0.64-1.04
Finishing vs xG-0.060.05-0.110.01
xPts / match1.221.261.010.77
Points vs xPts-0.040.22-0.110.18
Game state
Scored first40%42%32%26%
PPG when scoring first2.132.252.253.00
PPG when conceding first0.470.900.050.08
Came back from behind29%42%5%8%
Leads held71%80%67%100%
Minutes leading19%28%18%18%
Minutes level46%43%48%44%
Minutes trailing35%29%34%38%
First goal (min)44414947
First goal conceded (min)29313735
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%56%62%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half51%52%51%39%
Late goals for (76'+)0.320.260.240.11
Late goals against0.210.210.240.16
Style
Possession44%45%46%46%
Shots11.812.59.17.9
On target4.04.33.32.9
Shot conversion10%11%9%9%
Shots inside box62%65%61%59%
Big chances created2.02.51.61.3
Corners3.84.33.53.4
xG from set plays30%30%34%32%
Goals from headers23%22%19%14%
Pressure index9.110.76.95.7
Dominant minutes36.440.332.829.1
Pass accuracy79%79%78%77%
Fouls13.913.613.513.7
Cards1.921.792.082.05

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Torino

0–15'45
16–30'713
31–45'613
46–60'812
61–75'712
76–90'128

Cremonese

0–15'49
16–30'37
31–45'512
46–60'810
61–75'310
76–90'99

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Torino · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.68

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.024
Early press (0-15, level)-0.184
Late push (76+, level)+0.302
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.093

Game state

When level+0.044
When behind-0.154
10 min after conceding-0.384
10 min after scoring+0.683

Situations

At home-0.192
Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.024

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.192
v mid-tier opponents+0.142
As underdog-0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.374
Conceded late (76+)+0.244

Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.20

Cremonese

No pressure profile yet.

Torino

Current: winless 1 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-216 42%1.01.381.881.281.51
3-4-1-29 24%1.891.560.891.261.18
3-4-2-14 10%1.01.252.01.71.47
4-3-32 5%0.50.02.50.941.71
3-4-32 5%1.51.01.00.851.42

Cremonese

Current: winless 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-226 68%0.770.691.580.961.66
4-4-25 13%1.41.01.00.630.89
3-1-4-24 10%1.751.50.751.312.02
3-4-31 3%0.01.02.00.80.84
5-3-21 3%0.01.04.00.632.72

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 47%3.3Draw 29% P 28%3.9Away 24% P 25%

Double Chance

1.22Torino or Draw 38% P 38%1.3Torino or Cremonese 36% P 36%1.8Draw or Cremonese 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52% P 52%1.95No 48% P 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 48%1.9Under 50% P 52%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.8Over 51%1.9Under 49%
4.51.9Over 49%1.8Under 51%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 22.5–25% · 565 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%48%+1.4
Draw28%30%28%-1.5
Away25%24%24%+0.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 41%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes52%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

Livio Marinelli

Career
71 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.04 (3.83 yellow · 0.13 red)
Fouls / match
23.8 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.34
Cards to home side
54%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 61 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.934.49-0.8022
Fouls / match23.725.2-0.93
Fouls per card6.05.6+0.19 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.360.31+0.3066
Time added6.86.4+0.7878
First card
34' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-19 60 251 50'7
2025-09-21 30 230 31'8
2025-08-29 10 180 64'10
2025-05-25 20 140 47'8
2025-05-18 10 240 87'5
2025-05-09 40 190 37'7
2025-04-23 40 220 65'10
2025-02-28 50 221 17'6
2025-02-17 20 290 12'4
2025-02-09 10 210 54'7