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Serie A · Matchweek 16

Momentum

JuventusRoma
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Juventus Stadium, Torino
Capacity
45,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
41,602

Teams

Coaches
Luciano Spalletti · Gian Gasperini
Position
5 · 4
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Simone Sozza

Where to watch · 334

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Juventus

WWLWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 5 · xG 9.27–6.59 · xPts 8.29

  • W A Bologna 1–0 xG 1.47–0.8 ITA SA
  • W H Pafos FC 2–0 xG 2.25–1.4 UEFA CL
  • L A Napoli 1–2 xG 0.41–1.52 ITA SA
  • W H Cagliari 2–1 xG 1.43–0.82 ITA SA
  • W A Bodø / Glimt 3–2 xG 3.71–2.04 UEFA CL

Roma

WLLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 5.0–5.43 · xPts 6.37

  • W H Como 1–0 xG 1.23–0.6 ITA SA
  • W A Celtic 3–0 xG 1.48–1.45 UEFA EL
  • L A Cagliari 0–1 xG 0.61–1.26 ITA SA
  • L H Napoli 0–1 xG 0.44–1.09 ITA SA
  • W H FC Midtjylland 2–1 xG 1.24–1.04 UEFA EL

All meetings · 40 matches since 2005

Juventus 2112 draws7 Roma

Goals 65–39 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 42%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Juventus 45 draws1 Roma

Goals 14–11 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Juventus 14 draws0 Roma

Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Roma 3–3 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Juventus 2–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Juventus 0–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Juventus 1–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 1–0 Juventus ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Juventus 1–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 3–4 Juventus neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Juventus 1–0 Roma neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricJuventus all · 38Juventus at home · 19Roma all · 38Roma away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.821.951.921.63
W / D / L19 / 12 / 710 / 7 / 223 / 4 / 1110 / 1 / 8
Goals for / match1.611.841.551.37
Goals against / match0.890.840.821.11
Clean sheets42%42%47%37%
Failed to score21%21%18%21%
Both teams scored45%47%34%42%
Over 2.540%42%37%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.832.061.481.39
xG against / match1.000.920.991.26
xG difference0.831.140.490.14
Finishing vs xG-0.22-0.220.07-0.02
xPts / match1.832.011.701.50
Points vs xPts-0.02-0.070.220.13
Game state
Scored first58%53%66%58%
PPG when scoring first2.642.802.722.55
PPG when conceding first0.621.000.380.38
Came back from behind50%75%27%20%
Leads held83%91%88%83%
Minutes leading35%36%40%39%
Minutes level49%49%44%41%
Minutes trailing17%15%16%20%
First goal (min)35343630
First goal conceded (min)40404644
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half61%60%54%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%44%68%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.340.470.240.16
Late goals against0.210.110.260.32
Style
Possession58%59%56%55%
Shots16.819.713.211.2
On target6.06.84.74.2
Shot conversion10%9%12%12%
Shots inside box65%64%74%71%
Big chances created2.93.22.22.0
Corners5.46.55.24.6
xG from set plays26%29%31%36%
Goals from headers24%30%20%12%
Pressure index22.525.518.616.3
Dominant minutes64.769.161.955.8
Pass accuracy86%87%83%82%
Fouls12.111.413.814.8
Cards1.451.111.892.16

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Juventus

0–15'104
16–30'73
31–45'78
46–60'116
61–75'135
76–90'138

Roma

0–15'85
16–30'90
31–45'105
46–60'108
61–75'133
76–90'910

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Juventus · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.27) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.64

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.275
Early press (0-15, level)-0.165
Late push (76+, level)+1.292
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.212

Game state

When ahead+0.423
When level+0.215
When behind+0.142
10 min after conceding-0.112
10 min after scoring+0.645

Situations

At home+0.163
Away+0.402
4+ days rest+0.275

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.152
As favourite+0.275

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.285
Conceded when ahead-0.343
Conceded late (76+)-0.494

Ahead vs level +0.20 · Behind vs level -0.07

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Juventus

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-124 63%2.041.540.671.690.99
4-2-3-16 16%1.671.830.832.610.73
4-1-4-12 5%2.01.50.52.281.11
3-5-22 5%0.00.51.51.01.33
4-3-32 5%0.01.02.51.21.6

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-130 79%1.91.630.871.450.98
3-4-1-24 10%2.251.250.251.710.58
3-5-23 8%1.331.331.331.781.78
3-4-31 3%3.01.00.00.780.6

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 48%3.0Draw 32% P 30%4.5Away 21% P 22%

Double Chance

1.18Juventus or Draw 40% P 39%1.36Juventus or Roma 34% P 35%1.8Draw or Roma 26% P 26%

Draw No Bet

1.361 69%3.02 31%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 50%1.9No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.1Over 45% P 43%1.72Under 55% P 57%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 34%5.012 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 42%1.72Under 54% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 47.5–50% · away 20–22.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home48%49%47%-2.2
Draw30%29%33%+3.5
Away22%22%20%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 46%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Simone Sozza

Career
103 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.41 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.49
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 69 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.484.49-0.0249
Fouls / match25.725.2+0.40
Fouls per card5.75.6-0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.480.31+1.2485
Time added6.36.4-0.2427
First card
34' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.42

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-14 10 250 33'6
2025-11-27 60 300 8'7
2025-11-23 30 161 45'8
2025-11-05 50 160 41'7
2025-10-29 31 271 49'5
2025-10-19 71 271 28'8
2025-09-27 · Juventus 31 130 32'7
2025-09-21 · Roma 21 360 83'10
2025-09-18 40 201 10'7
2025-08-28 15 38'5