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Serie A · Matchweek 16

Momentum

NapoliParma
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
16

Venue

Stadium
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
Capacity
54,726
Surface
grass
Attendance
40,000

Teams

Coaches
Cristian Stellini · Carlos Antón Cuesta
Position
3 · 14
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Michael Fabbri

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
11.2° (feels 10.3°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
76%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Napoli

LWWDD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 8.28–5.73 · xPts 8.32

  • D A Inter 2–2 xG 1.08–1.58 ITA SA
  • D H Hellas Verona 2–2 xG 1.41–1.82 ITA SA
  • W A Lazio 2–0 xG 1.92–0.45 ITA SA
  • W A Cremonese 2–0 xG 2.85–0.55 ITA SA
  • L A Udinese 0–1 xG 1.02–1.32 ITA SA

Parma

LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 5.89–7.4 · xPts 6.34

  • W A Lecce 2–1 xG 1.37–0.76 ITA SA
  • L H Inter 0–2 xG 0.49–2.89 ITA SA
  • D A Sassuolo 1–1 xG 1.3–1.02 ITA SA
  • W H Fiorentina 1–0 xG 1.14–1.45 ITA SA
  • L H Lazio 0–1 xG 1.58–1.27 ITA SA

All meetings · 24 matches since 2007

Napoli 135 draws6 Parma

Goals 39–21 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 54% · over 2.5 54%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Napoli 53 draws2 Parma

Goals 16–6 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Napoli 23 draws0 Parma

Goals 5–2 · 1.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • D Parma 1–1 Napoli ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Napoli 0–0 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Parma 0–0 Napoli ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Napoli 2–1 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Napoli 2–0 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Parma 0–2 Napoli neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Parma 2–1 Napoli ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Napoli 1–2 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Parma 0–4 Napoli ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Napoli 3–0 Parma ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricNapoli all · 38Napoli at home · 19Parma all · 38Parma away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game2.002.261.181.26
W / D / L23 / 7 / 813 / 4 / 211 / 12 / 156 / 6 / 7
Goals for / match1.531.740.740.63
Goals against / match0.950.951.211.11
Clean sheets40%37%34%42%
Failed to score21%16%42%47%
Both teams scored47%58%40%32%
Over 2.553%63%29%26%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.471.450.890.86
xG against / match1.061.131.561.59
xG difference0.400.32-0.66-0.72
Finishing vs xG0.060.29-0.15-0.23
xPts / match1.631.601.010.96
Points vs xPts0.370.660.170.31
Game state
Scored first55%58%34%32%
PPG when scoring first2.863.002.462.67
PPG when conceding first0.931.330.370.44
Came back from behind47%67%25%22%
Leads held96%100%73%86%
Minutes leading40%40%13%14%
Minutes level40%43%63%63%
Minutes trailing20%18%24%23%
First goal (min)31354849
First goal conceded (min)37374139
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half47%54%64%58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%56%63%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.260.320.260.21
Late goals against0.180.160.340.37
Style
Possession59%59%44%42%
Shots13.213.810.79.0
On target4.75.22.72.5
Shot conversion12%12%7%7%
Shots inside box64%66%56%56%
Big chances created2.01.91.61.7
Corners5.56.33.83.5
xG from set plays29%25%40%43%
Goals from headers17%12%36%42%
Pressure index20.422.09.17.5
Dominant minutes63.664.637.832.6
Pass accuracy87%87%80%80%
Fouls11.211.110.810.8
Cards1.371.001.971.84

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Napoli

0–15'118
16–30'93
31–45'114
46–60'118
61–75'66
76–90'107

Parma

0–15'47
16–30'34
31–45'36
46–60'48
61–75'48
76–90'1013

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Napoli · 5 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.015
Early press (0-15, level)-0.105
Late push (76+, level)+0.352
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.433

Game state

When ahead+0.473
When level-0.055
When behind-0.253
10 min after conceding-0.473
10 min after scoring+0.824

Situations

At home+0.023
Away-0.062
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.322
As favourite+0.442
As underdog-0.432

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.305
Conceded when ahead+0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.115

Ahead vs level +0.52 · Behind vs level -0.20

Parma · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.20) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.53

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.204
Early press (0-15, level)+0.534
Late push (76+, level)-0.722
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.523

Game state

When level-0.214
When behind-0.194
10 min after conceding-0.494
10 min after scoring-0.162

Situations

At home-0.242
Away-0.172
4+ days rest-0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172
Evenly matched-0.242
As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.484

Behind vs level +0.02

Napoli

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-121 55%1.861.521.11.391.03
4-1-4-18 21%2.251.881.02.011.36
3-4-36 16%2.51.670.51.410.74
4-3-33 8%1.330.330.670.641.14

Parma

Current: winless 4 · scoring 2 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-219 50%1.320.740.890.841.35
4-3-36 16%1.830.830.671.011.5
3-4-2-14 10%1.00.51.751.062.38
3-1-4-23 8%0.670.671.670.751.27
4-4-22 5%0.00.51.51.241.14

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.3Home 73% P 74%5.5Draw 17% P 18%10.0Away 10% P 8%

Double Chance

1.06Napoli or Draw 45% P 46%1.16Napoli or Parma 41% P 41%3.25Draw or Parma 15% P 13%

Draw No Bet

1.081 88%8.02 12%

Both Teams To Score

2.37Yes 39% P 40%1.53No 61% P 60%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 51%1.9Under 50% P 49%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.52.2Over 42% P 40%1.61Under 58% P 60%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 72.5–75% · away 7.5–10% · 458 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home74%74%74%+0.5
Draw18%17%18%+0.9
Away8%9%8%-1.5

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 60%

Both teams to score · yes 37.5–40% · 337 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes40%39%41%+2.1

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.551%51%51%-0.1

Michael Fabbri

Career
176 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.58 (4.35 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
24.3 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.27
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 70 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.574.49+0.1156
Fouls / match24.125.2-0.66
Fouls per card5.35.6-0.56 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.31-1.0010
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
33' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-01-03 30 310 19'13
2025-12-28 10 201 43'5
2025-12-07 61 310 20'8
2025-11-29 40 280 27'6
2025-11-01 40 250 64'5
2025-10-20 60 290 6'4
2025-05-25 62 220 32'9
2025-05-10 · Parma 41 370 22'8
2025-04-27 30 200 3'7
2025-04-14 · Napoli 20 240 42'2