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Serie A · Matchweek 18

Momentum

AtalantaRoma
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
18

Venue

Stadium
Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
Capacity
23,439
Surface
grass
Attendance
23,088

Teams

Coaches
Raffaele Palladino · Gian Gasperini
Position
8 · 5
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Michael Fabbri

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
4.1° (feels 2.9°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
66%

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2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 382765 893554 87 DWWDD
2 Napoli 382378 583622 76 WDLWW
3 Roma 3823411 593128 73 WWWWW
4 Como 3820117 652936 71 WDWWW
5 AC Milan 3820108 533518 70 DLLWL
6 Juventus 3819127 613427 69 DDWLD
7 Atalanta 3815149 513615 59 LDWLD
8 Bologna 3816814 49463 56 LDWWD
9 Lazio 38141212 41401 54 DWLLW
10 Udinese 3814816 4548-3 50 DWWLL
11 Sassuolo 3814717 4650-4 49 DWLLL
12 Torino 3812917 4463-19 45 DLWLD
13 Parma 38111215 2846-18 45 WLLLW
14 Cagliari 38111017 4053-13 43 WDLWW
15 Fiorentina 3891514 4150-9 42 DLDWD
16 Genoa 38101117 4151-10 41 LDDLL
17 Lecce 3810820 2850-22 38 DWLWW
18 Cremonese 3881020 3257-25 34 LLWWL
19 Hellas Verona 3831223 2561-36 21 DDLDL
20 Pisa 3821224 2671-45 18 LLLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Atalanta

LWWWL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 6 · xG 9.43–4.96 · xPts 9.57

  • L H Inter 0–1 xG 0.81–1.08 ITA SA
  • W A Genoa 1–0 xG 2.2–0.69 ITA SA
  • W H Cagliari 2–1 xG 2.5–0.59 ITA SA
  • W H Chelsea 2–1 xG 2.15–1.23 UEFA CL
  • L A Hellas Verona 1–3 xG 1.78–1.37 ITA SA

Roma

LWWLW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 4 · xG 6.42–6.18 · xPts 7.11

  • W H Genoa 3–1 xG 1.59–0.68 ITA SA
  • L A Juventus 1–2 xG 1.51–2.2 ITA SA
  • W H Como 1–0 xG 1.23–0.6 ITA SA
  • W A Celtic 3–0 xG 1.48–1.45 UEFA EL
  • L A Cagliari 0–1 xG 0.61–1.26 ITA SA

All meetings · 39 matches since 2006

Atalanta 159 draws15 Roma

Goals 61–57 · 3.03 per match · BTTS 74% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Atalanta 62 draws2 Roma

Goals 14–8 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Atalanta 31 draws1 Roma

Goals 7–4 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Roma 2–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 1–0 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 2–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 0–2 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 2–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • D Roma 1–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Atalanta 3–1 Roma ITA SA · Regular Season
  • W Roma 0–1 Atalanta ITA SA · Regular Season
  • L Roma 1–0 Atalanta neutral ITA SA · Regular Season
MetricAtalanta all · 38Atalanta at home · 19Roma all · 38Roma away · 19
Results
Matches38193819
Points per game1.551.741.921.63
W / D / L15 / 14 / 99 / 6 / 423 / 4 / 1110 / 1 / 8
Goals for / match1.341.321.551.37
Goals against / match0.950.790.821.11
Clean sheets34%37%47%37%
Failed to score21%32%18%21%
Both teams scored53%42%34%42%
Over 2.537%37%37%42%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.711.951.481.39
xG against / match1.180.930.991.26
xG difference0.531.010.490.14
Finishing vs xG-0.36-0.630.07-0.02
xPts / match1.711.991.701.50
Points vs xPts-0.16-0.250.220.13
Game state
Scored first50%47%66%58%
PPG when scoring first2.472.782.722.55
PPG when conceding first0.560.750.380.38
Came back from behind44%50%27%20%
Leads held75%90%88%83%
Minutes leading28%33%40%39%
Minutes level51%51%44%41%
Minutes trailing21%16%16%20%
First goal (min)46313630
First goal conceded (min)48484644
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%52%54%50%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%60%68%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.340.260.240.16
Late goals against0.240.160.260.32
Style
Possession55%56%56%55%
Shots14.817.113.211.2
On target4.65.14.74.2
Shot conversion9%8%12%12%
Shots inside box66%66%74%71%
Big chances created2.53.02.22.0
Corners5.76.85.24.6
xG from set plays25%28%31%36%
Goals from headers14%24%20%12%
Pressure index15.919.218.616.3
Dominant minutes55.461.761.955.8
Pass accuracy84%85%83%82%
Fouls11.811.413.814.8
Cards1.681.261.892.16

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Atalanta

0–15'83
16–30'58
31–45'117
46–60'84
61–75'65
76–90'139

Roma

0–15'85
16–30'90
31–45'105
46–60'108
61–75'133
76–90'910

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Atalanta · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.46

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.066
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late push (76+, level)-0.393
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.582

Game state

When ahead-0.174
When level-0.086
When behind+0.312
10 min after conceding-0.463
10 min after scoring+0.205

Situations

At home+0.024
Away-0.212
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.023
As favourite+0.025

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.466
Conceded when ahead+0.404
Conceded late (76+)+0.076

Congested vs rested -0.08 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level +0.39

Roma · 5 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.66) · stands out: when level +0.82

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.665
Early press (0-15, level)+0.385
Late push (76+, level)+0.042

Game state

When ahead+0.365
When level+0.825
10 min after conceding-0.312
10 min after scoring+0.545

Situations

At home+1.332
Away+0.173
4+ days rest+0.665

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.912
As favourite+0.665

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.195
Conceded when ahead-0.195
Conceded late (76+)-0.563

Ahead vs level -0.46 · Behind vs level -0.11

Atalanta

Current: winless 2 · scoring 5 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-134 90%1.651.410.911.711.2
3-4-1-23 8%0.670.671.331.640.91
4-3-31 3%1.01.01.01.921.05

Roma

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 1 · scoring 22 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-130 79%1.91.630.871.450.98
3-4-1-24 10%2.251.250.251.710.58
3-5-23 8%1.331.331.331.781.78
3-4-31 3%3.01.00.00.780.6

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 42% P 41%3.1Draw 31% P 31%3.5Away 27% P 27%

Double Chance

1.28Atalanta or Draw 37% P 36%1.36Atalanta or Roma 34% P 34%1.61Draw or Roma 29% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.531 61%2.372 39%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 51%1.9No 50% P 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.66Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58%2.2Under 42%
4.52.1Over 44%1.66Under 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 25–27.5% · 232 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%42%47%+5.0
Draw31%32%29%-2.8
Away27%27%25%-2.2

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 41%

Both teams to score · yes 50–52.5% · 3,449 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes51%51%51%-0.6

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Michael Fabbri

Career
176 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.58 (4.35 yellow · 0.11 red)
Fouls / match
24.3 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.27
Cards to home side
50%

Style in Serie A (5-year window · 70 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.574.49+0.1156
Fouls / match24.125.2-0.66
Fouls per card5.35.6-0.56 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.20.31-1.0010
Time added6.56.4+0.1749
First card
33' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.19

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-28 10 201 43'5
2025-12-07 61 310 20'8
2025-11-29 40 280 27'6
2025-11-01 · Atalanta 40 250 64'5
2025-10-20 60 290 6'4
2025-05-25 62 220 32'9
2025-05-10 41 370 22'8
2025-04-27 · Roma 30 200 3'7
2025-04-14 20 240 42'2
2025-03-16 50 220 13'3